By-election in Punggol East?

The Speaker of Parliament and MP for Punggol East, Michael Palmer has resigned from his post as Speaker, his position as the member of Parliament and his membership in the PAP.  It appears that he has had a relationship with a member of the Peoples' Association. 

I had blogged earlier this year about the Yaw Shin Leong affair and my stance on the extra marital affairs and the duties and functions of elected representatives.  I don't think that Parliamentarians and ministers should be judged on the basis of what goes on in their private lives.  What is important is the way in which the public official conducts his duties.  http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2012/02/politics-of-affairs.html

Now that Palmer's seat is vacant, we again get to visit the question of whether a by-election should or would be held.  After Yaw Shin Leong's resignation, several members of the PAP made public statements about how the calling of a by-election is entirely at the discretion of the PM.  At that time, my view of the Constitutional provision on the filling of vacancies in Parliament was pretty much straightforward.  Article 49 states that the vacancy "shall be filled by election" and that to me (and most observers) was clearly denying any discretion for the PM.  The only discretion that he could have was to delay the time within which the by-election had to be called.  http://article14.blogspot.sg/2012/02/by-election-when-not-whether.html . 

However, the Vellama case that sought to obtain a determinative pronouncement on the interpretation of Art 49, has complicated matters somewhat.  When the Hougang seat became vacant, the PAP leadership was getting heat from the people and also from the Court application.  Eventually, it relented and called for a by-election.  As it turned out, the High Court ruled against Vellama and the current legally affirmed interpretation is that the PM has discretion to decide whether and when to call a by-election.  I disagree with the Court's reasoning in that case and I blogged about this a few days ago. 

http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2012/12/the-hougang-by-election-case-belated.html

With Michael Palmer's resignation, there will be renewed calls for a by-election.  There are already facebook postings calling for a by-election in Punggol.  Workers Party (which was slow to comment on the SMRT drivers' strike) has already issued a comment on Palmer's resignation and called for by-elections to be held.  The Worker's Party's facebook posting states:

"The Workers' Party has noted the announcement today that the Speaker of Parliament, Mr Michael Palmer, has resigned from the People's Action Party.

By virtue of Article 46 of the Constitution, Mr Palmer's Parliamentary seat for Punggol East Single Member Constituency (SMC) has become vacant.

In order that the residents of Punggol East SMC are properly represented, the Workers' Party urges the Prime Minister to call a by-election in the constituency as soon as possible.

In the last General Election, the Workers' Party contested Punggol East SMC. The Workers' Party is ready to offer a choice to the voters of Punggol East SMC again in the by-election."

The PAP government's reaction to calls for a by-election would be interesting to watch.  Previously, without the benefit of the High Court judgment, they were already adament about the existence of a discretion.  Now, it would be easy for the PM to hide behind the legal interpretation and state that there is no legal requirement for him to call for a by election. 

But, what the PM must remind himself about is the fact that if indeed it is legally the PM's discretion, then politically he must exercise that discretion in a fair and reasonable manner in order not to contribute to a further reduction in the PAP's political capital.  GE 2011 may seem like a distant memory to the political leadership of the PAP.  They must remind themselves that part of the reason why they did not lose more of the popular vote was that an apology was extended midway through the election campaign.  There must have been a sizeable number of voters that were swayed by the apology.  But, 18 months after the general elections, people are beginning to get a sense that no major policy changes are lined up.  There has been more of an attempt at perception management rather than genuine policy adjustment.  I am sure that as we stand today the PAP has less political capital than it did during the general elections. 

A decision by the PM not to call for by-elections at Punggol East would add to the loss of political capital.  It is not prudent for the by-election to be postponed indefinitely.  That would be one more issue for the opposition to raise at the next GE about the high-handedness of the PAP. 

Of course, calling for a by-election at Punggol East represents a high risk for the PAP in terms of losing another seat in Parliament.  Palmer won Punggol East with 54.54% of the vote.  A vote swing of 5% would be needed for PAP to lose this seat.  In the last GE, there were a few constituencies that witnessed vote swings of between 10% to 14% (e.g. Joo Chiat = 14%) against the PAP.  But, that swing has to be seen in the light of the general election cycle (spanning 5 years) and the unusually strong anti-PAP sentiments on the ground.  It is possible that this sentiment had already been fully milked during GE 2011 and in Punggol East today we might just see a marginal swing away from the PAP of 2% to 3%. 

PAP could make the prudent calculation that there is a possibility of retaining Punggol East and at the same time coming across as not doing business as usual by doing the democratic thing: calling for by-elections.  The ball is in your court Prime Minister. 

(Meanwhile, Mdm Vellama's appeal in the Court of Appeal is still pending.  Things could still play out very differently and the court could rule that a by-election is mandatory.)

 

The New Normal: Celebrating a New Media victory (or 'Why We don't need your COC')

Exactly one year ago, we were in the midst of one of the fiercest and most intensely fought out general elections in the history of our nation (post independance). There was much drama and passion; Grand and inspiring speeches by the likes of Vincent Vijeysinha; Rising chorus of anger amongst the voting public; Open display of disdain for PAP candidates (in a country that was often driven by fear of political reprisal, whether real or imagined).

There were particular moments during the campaign period when we felt that public opinion may be swinging so wildly against the PAP that Aljunied, Holland-Bukit Timah and Bishan-Toa Payoh might fall. Marine Parade was not looking very safe for the PAP nor was East Coast. These are GRCs. In the past, GRCs were the safe zones for the PAP and the opposition struggled to make a dent. In 2011, the opposition parties contested nearly all the seats and gave to the electorate an important gift: the ability to vote in the general elections. For many, it was the first time that they had a chance to vote. The opposition parties benefited from a more credible slate of candidates. The level of resentment against the PAP's policies had led to candidates with sound credentials coming forward to take up the cause of providing an alternative voice in Parliament.

Above all else, I believe the crucial development in the 2011 elections was the disappearance of fear from the minds of many voters. Perhaps, not surprisingly, this translated into a corresponding fear in the minds of the PAP candidates. The high and mighty and infallible PAP was reduced to issuing a public apology. On 3rd May 2011, at Boat Quay, we witnessed the vulnerability of the PAP and the true power of the ballot.

An important battle in the 2011 elections was fought online. It was not a straightforward battle between the PAP and the Opposition Parties. Much of the battle was waged by bloggers, websites such as The Online Citizen and Temasek Review, citizens posting on forum pages and Facebook users doing no more than clicking and sharing. The irreverance was infectious and it was curing many of the disease of fear. The online battles were crucial in averting serious damage for the opposition and in inflicting damage on the PAP. Singaporeans have grown accustomed to the reality that the mainstream media is the mouthpiece of the ruling party. Alternative sources of information were becoming more relevant to the assessment of issues thrown up during the elections. Quite tellingly, thanks to keyboard warriors, it became difficult to tarnish or trivialise opposition candidates and their policy positions.

Since it is now a year after that historic election campaign, I thought it would be good to reflect on one such online battle. During the campaign, Vivian Balakrishnan said the SDP was suppressing a video on youtube that raised "some very awkward questions about the agenda and motivations of the SDP and its candidates." He stated: "I can't help feeling that part of the reason for their (SDP) reticence is they have elements of their agenda they are not prepared to disclose and subject to scrutiny. Eventually, they will have to come out of the closet."

The phrase, "coming out of the closet" is often used in the context of a person coming forward to openly declare his sexual orientation. As it transpired, the video being referred to was one involving a speech by lawyer M Ravi. Vincent Wijeysingha of the SDP can be seen briefly in the video asking some questions. Vivian Balakrishnan's allusion was to a potential gay agenda on the part of the SDP. The perception amongst many netizens was that there was an attempt to tarnish the image of Vincent Wijeysingha by emphasizing that he is gay. A New Paper issue ran the headline: "Is Singapore ready for a Gay MP?"

The online backlash was consistent, virulent and mono-directional (against the PAP). Voters had too many fundamental concerns that needed to be addressed and netizens reflected this by displaying impatience with an attempted smear campaign against the SDP candidate. On April 28, Vivian Balakrishnan told the press that there is no need to discuss the video further.

The election campaign was marked by many instances of campaign issues being subjected to close scrutiny online. I wouldn't be overstating the case if I were to say that the 2011 General Elections was heavilly influenced by online discussion.

Today, we are engaged in discussion (initiated by the government) about a Code of Conduct for the internet. Given the fact that our laws relating to sedition, contempt of court, criminal and civil defamation and incitement to religious hatred are more than adequate to deal with some of the reasons stated for a Code of Conduct by Dr Yacoob, one can only arrive at the conclusion that the real issue for the PAP leaders is the control of information that is available online. PAP no longer enjoys a monopoly on information. The diversity of views expressed online (often in the form of intellectually sharp analysis) gives the people a very real opportunity to assess the truth for themselves. The days of an officially constructed reality are over.

Do we need a COC? No. In all likelihood this move is initiated as an attempt at information management. If that is indeed the motivation, then our leaders have not understood a key driving force behind the 'new normal'. So, here is some free advice: We don't want to be told. We want to make up our own minds.

George Yeo: Many had "lost faith in the government"

As reported in the media, Mr George Yeo has pretty much acknowleged that last year's poor showing (relatively speaking) in the general elections, indicates that many people had lost faith in the government.

It is good to see that with the burden of the Ministerial post off his shoulders and the lack of a Parlimanetary seat, George Yeo is able to speak his mind and admit the reality on the ground. I wonder if the extent of the populuation's loss of faith has filtered through to the leadership.

I believe that the only reason why PAP did not suffer further losses in the last GE was because there were still a sizeable number that believed that change was possible from within the Party. It was clear from the Presidential Elections that many PAP voters had voted for Dr Tan Cheng Bock instead of Dr Tony Tan (the preferred PAP candidate). This was undeniably the soft option for voters wishing to express their discontent. They got their PAP government at the General Elections but they had the possibility of a non-endorsed and yet ex-PAP member (and old-school grassroots savy PAP MP) as an option for President. In one sense, a vote against Tony Tan by those that voted for the PAP at the GE was a clear message of the displeasure felt even by that segment of the population that had supported the PAP.

The extent of the displeasure is not limited to the 40% that voted for the opposition in the GE. I believe that the Presidential Elections last year constituted a form of an opinion poll on the loss of faith felt by Singaporeans. Yes, the 1,372,847 Singaporeans that did not vote for Tony Tan indicated in various shades that the current government needs to get its act together. That was effectively 64.8% of the electorate.

I appreciate George Yeo's suggestion that we have to set aside political differences and work together as a nation. I believe that these are the tentative signs of us maturing as a nation. There is still too much bitterness in the conversations carried out across party lines. A political history of repression of alternative voices has led to too much suspicion and lack of a willingness to listen (applicable to the ruling party and the opposition supporters). We need to recognise that it is perfectly fine to have strong political views and it is healthy to engage in virulent debate. In the midst of all that we must not forget that we are friends, family, Singaporeans.

New Normal 101: How to react to a vacant Parliamentary seat?

There is general consensus that Singapore citizens have evolved. The old unquestioning attitude is still there in many quarters. But, a significant part of the population is questioning, demanding answers (often vociferously) and refusing to back down. Given the fact that the opposition vote in the 2011 Genereal Elections was slightly over 800,000 and that even amongst many PAP supporters there is a certain amount of disillusionment (that was partly reflected in the significantly small percentage of votes received by the "endorsed" candidate for the Presidential Elections), many commentators have boldly painted the picture of Singapore walking into a new era of politics.

There is no doubt that many citizens today have little tolerance for the politics of yesterday. 'More of the same' is no longer an option for the PAP. For a time after the General Elections last year, I started believing in the serious possibility that there might be a change of style in the way that PAP governs and seeks to govern in the future. But, recent events (threatened legal actions for defamation and refusal to call for a by-election in Hougang) appear to be an indication that it is difficult to teach an old dog new tricks. (For the avoidance of doubt, that is a figure of speech and not an insult in the vein of that PRC student's 'dog' remark.)

After the Yaw Shin Leong saga, I thought that the PM would play the game 'new-normal' style and affirm the Hougang residents' constitutional right. Instead, the knee-jerk reaction was to give an answer that was pretty much in keeping with the old approach. This has led me to ponder on how the PM could have reacted to the announcement of the Parliamentary vacancy. If I was the PM, this is how I would make a press statement:

"What has happened in Hougang is most unfortunate. Not only do we expect persons taking up public office to be of high competence and calibre but also to be possessed of good moral fibre. We do not know whether the rumours surrounding Mr Yaw were true. It appears now that when confronted by his own Party colleagues, he has failed to account to them on the truth or otherwise of these rumours.

Whatever may have happened, we do not seek to judge. The Parliamentary seat is vacant and the residents of Hougang have been deprived of representation in Parliament. This government is committed to the democratic franchise and the residents of Hougang have my assurance that a by-election will be held. I have not, as yet, made any decision as to the timing of the by-election. But, I will not stand in the way of the Constitutional rights of the citizens of this country. A by-election will be called expeditiously and a public announcement will be made in due course."

What has the PM got to lose by making the above statement? Nothing. The reality is that Hougang is a constituency that is not going to revert back to the PAP in a hurry. If the next General Elections are held in 2016, the PAP is bound to lose in Hougang barring some unforeseen developments. There is absolutely nothing to be gained in indefinitely postponing by-elections or in totally refusing to hold one. On the contrary, refusing to hold a by-election by relying on semantics does nothing more than alienate even the moderate voters.

How do you win political capital in a losing battle such as this? You change. You change your own operational philosophy. You recognise that political office is a privilege accorded to you by the electorate. You recognise that the right to vote and the right to have a representative in Parliament is too fundamental to be argued away. You internalise this concept more than any other partisan interests that you might have. Once you have done that, the words will come out naturally. People will notice the difference. People will begin to believe that change has not only taken root in the minds of the electorate but also in the minds of the political leaders. With that believe will come a willingness to engage in dialogue. With such dialogue, the groundwork for winning back votes can be laid.

You can't win back votes through perception management. You can do so if you change your thinking about democracy and the Constitution.

Black Sunday: A New Dawn?: A test for the post GE 2011 government

Under Section 5 of the Public Order Act 2009, a public assembly shall not take place unless notice of it has been given to the Commissioner under Section 6 and a permit has been granted under Section 7.

Effectively, any public assembly without a permit would constitute an offence.

So, what constitutes a public assembly? The Public Order Act 2009 makes the assembly of a single individual an offence. Although linguistically it seems impossible to evisage the assembly of one, the law can get away with the creation of fiction for convenience.

Section 1 of the Public Order Act spells out the definition of an 'assembly':

"assembly" means a gathering or meeting (whether or not comprising any lecture, talk, address, debate or discussion) of persons the purpose (or one of the purposes) of which is —
(a) to demonstrate support for or opposition to the views or actions of any person, group of persons or any government;
(b) to publicise a cause or campaign; or
(c) to mark or commemorate any event,
and includes a demonstration by a person alone for any such purpose referred to in paragraph (a), (b) or (c);

If a group of friends decide (let's say) to commemorate the death anniversary of JBJ by gathering at a public place, an offence would be committed. In fact, if I 'gathered' alone at a public place to commemorate an event, that would also constitute an assembly under the Act.

The definition is broad enough to cover any kind of 'protest', 'demonstration' or public display of views.

Into this restrictively drawn statutory arrangement waltzes 'Mandy Mary'.

I first came across this person via a facebook group. I was aware that 'she' was organising (or at least appeared via facebook to be a prime mover) the Black Sunday event. A successful Black Sunday event took place to register disapproval of MP Tin Pei Ling. This took place at the Starbucks outlet at Parkway Parade on 29th May 2011. I became aware of this event the day after it took place via some discussion with facebook friends. And then another Mandy Mary inspired Black Sunday event cropped up. This time it was at Wisma Atria at a Starbucks outlet on 12th June 2011.

By now, Mandy Mary had become emboldened enough to turn this into a 'movement'. There is a facebook page for 'Black Sunday Movement' now.

What do I think of these events? Do they fall foul of the law? Are the organizers and participants taking too much of a risk?

Two crucial issues:
1.Were they gathered for one of the stated purposes in the statute under the definition section of the Public Order Act as set out above?
2.Would a cafe constitute a public place for the purpose of the Public Order Act?

Under Section 1 of the Act 'public place' is defined as follows:

"public place" means —
(a) any place (open to the air or otherwise) to which members of the public have access as of right or by virtue of express or implied permission, whether or not on payment of a fee, whether or not access to the place may be restricted at particular times or for particular purposes, and whether or not it is an “approved place” within the meaning of the Public Entertainments and Meetings Act (Cap. 257); or
(b) a part of a place that the occupier of the place allows members of the public to enter, but only while the place is ordinarily open to members of the public;

This definition is broad enough to cover a restaurant or cafe where the owner of the premises grants an express/implied permission to the customer to have access to the premises.

With the Black Sunday Movement promoting a cause and the event being held in arguably 'a public place', (The Public Order Act definition is arguably broader than the reference to a 'public place' in the Public Entertainments and Meetings Act), I wouldn't be surprised if the authorities decide to charge the individuals involved.

But, I am surprised. Pleasantly as well.
I am surprised because no action has been taken. Nobody has been called up for investigation. Yes, some men in blue were seen at the location of the second event but apart from a photographer who was asked for his ID, nobody appears to have been troubled.

In my heart, I quietly hope and pray that this is the new dawn. Quietly, and without fanfare, freedom awakens in our land.

If our Prime Minister had truly taken to heart the voice of the people during the election campaign this year, he would have realised that the change that needs to be instituted is not going to be merely cosmetic. It would not do for him or his party to pay lip service to change. It would not do for him or his party to merely manage public perception through information management. He would have realised that the citizens of this country have reached a level of political maturity that demands that the tight-fisted approach of years gone by cannot work any more.

Politics in this country has changed at a fundamental level this May. The more you seek to control, the more you lose electoral control.

If this has dawned on our PM and his party colleagues, we might be witnessing the beginning of a new reality. Events like Black Sunday are pretty harmless. All they do is publicise a cause. No rebel-rousing speeches. No spirited chanting. Not even any placards. A silent and nuisance-free way of expressing dissent. I am sure the individuals composing the present Cabinet can live with this and tolerate its existence. After all, they are now living with and tolerating so much of dissent online. Whilst doing that, I am sure they are beginning to realise how harmless this kind of dissent really is.

The key for the PAP government is to battle dissent with clear, cogent and rational argument. They can't get away with killing dissent with a sledgehammer. Those days are gone. People have finally felt the sense of empowerment that their vote is capable of giving them. Silencing regular dissent would translate into more votes lost for the PAP. Engaging dissent constructively may in fact win back some votes for them. For the hardcore opposition supporter this might not sound like a good thing. In fact, one might even secretly wish that the PAP would not change its ways. If they don't change their ways, they would lose more votes.

But, PM Lee might have already made the prudent calculation that some level of restraint in the use of the law and a greater level of engagement in honest debate with the public would actually be the win-win solution for the PAP as well as for the people. More easing of control might actually result in more electoral clout for the PAP. This could be his opportunity to script a future for our country truly with the people as co-authors. Public assembly could be a start. There are so many other areas where control could be eased.

I am speculating. Who knows what the future holds?

But, these are interesting times in our nation's history.

The Black Sunday Movement could be the sign of a new dawn for us all.

The Potong Pasir Town Council Saga & the broader issue of transparency

The following article appeared in Channelnewsasia today:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1132707/1/.html

It appears that the SPP has alleged that the newly elected PAP MP for Potong Pasir had promised to retain the services of all 16 employees of the Potong Pasir Town Council.

It appears that only 3 employees were retained at Potong Pasir TC and the remaining staff have been served with termination notices with an offer of re-employment with EM Services.

EM Services is the newly appointed managing agent of the Potong Pasir Town Council. I find the following aspect of the news report disturbing:

When contacted on Wednesday, Mr Sitoh refuted SPP's claims.

"At that time, I didn't know the inside workings of the town council and how many staff there were, so my exact words to her, "Since you asked, I'll try my best to see what I can do"," he said.

"And I think I've kept to my word: I negotiated with EM Services and I must give credit to EM Services. They said, "Don't worry, we'll take the staff"."

As for his decision not to keep most of the town council employees at Potong Pasir, Mr Sitoh said he could not keep everybody, as he has to abide by EM Services' regulations.

"It has its own way of doing things that is developed over the years, which is why I adopt this system. My paramount interest is the Potong Pasir residents, so EM Services has to bring in its own people. I can't compromise on standards of services I deliver to residents."

He added that EM Services will probably have to train some of the Potong Pasir town council employees under its own training programme.

Town council employees whom MediaCorp spoke to expressed concern about the situation, especially after they were told that when re-employed, they would be put on a six-month probation under EM Service's terms and conditions. When asked about the probation period, Mr Sitoh said this was standard human resource policy for all EM Services staff. He added: "If they're good performers, what's the worry?"

Firstly, it appears that the appointment of EM Services was one which involved a personal choice and exercise of discretion by Mr Sitoh. The process of appointment of Managing Agents is totally unsatisfactory. In the end, these Managing Agents are going to be paid under their contract by the Town Council. The Town Council funds are coming from the residents ultimately. Where is the accountability if one person exercising his personal discretion could negotiate with and appoint EM Services as the Managing Agent. I have in an earlier blog post addressed the issue of PAP members being part of EM Services including, of course, the Chief Operating Officer of EM Services who is an ex-MP. With such close party based links, it would have been more prudent for Mr Sitoh to have taken over the Town Council and then to set out, through an open and transparent manner, to find an appropriate Managing Agent. The fact is that PAP run Town Councils have become comfortable with the delegation of estate management functions to these companies such as EM Services, Esmaco & CPG Facilities. This has led to the newly elected MP for Potong Pasir to speedily appoint EM Services without first considering if the process itself should be transparent.

In an article on Today that appeared on 30th May 2011, Mdm Halimah of Jurong Town Council noted as follows:
"We have a transparent and rigorous system in place where all tenders, including the appointment of the managing agent, are evaluated by the Tenders and Contracts Committee comprising Councillors. This committee's recommendations are then reviewed by the full Council,"

If this is in fact the practice in Jurong Town Council, it Is to be welcomed. The appointment of the managing agent itself is one that is evaluated by the Tenders and Contracts Committee.

In Potong Pasir it remains a question mark as to whether any rigorous or transparent process was followed.


Secondly, this issue of what Mr Sitoh promised should not descend into a war of words between the SPP and Mr Sitoh over who said what. But, at this point that is the way it is coming out. SPP alleges one thing and Mr Sitoh disputes it. Let’s assume for a moment that Mr Sitoh is telling the truth that he said he would try his best. His final remark in that Channelnewsasia article is not at all indicative of someone who tried his best or someone who cares.

In relation to the 6-month probation period for the terminated Town Council employees, Mr Sitoh stated “if they are good performers, what’s the worry.” This is precisely the EQ problem that we have been encountering with many PAP MPs lately. One would have thought that the chorus of discontent that grew louder and louder during the elections would have helped to soften these MPs. It doesn’t appear to have affected some of them.

You win the election. You take over the Town Council. You unceremoniously terminate the employment of Town Council employees without so much as an offer of compensation. The best you could negotiate for these employees was an offer of employment at EM Services and your response to the 6 month probation period can at best be described as scornful. I expect more than that from you Mr Sitoh.

Thirdly, what is there to stop EM Services from claiming after the end of the probation period that the staff cannot be confirmed because they were below par. With the kind of political links that EM Services has, doubts may arise as to the true reason for the termination of the employees if they get dropped after six months. Many doubts have already been cast at the termination of services encountered by an employee of Esmaco serving at Jurong Town Council. The General Manager of the town council, Mr Ho had allegedly terminated the services of one of staff that happened to take part in campaign activities in support of the National Solidarity Party. Mr Ho, as it turned out, is, apart from being a director UGL Premas (the holding company that owns Esmaco), the Branch secretary of the PAP’s Bukit Batok Branch.

The line between Town Council, Managing Agent and the political party tend to be blurred in such situations. I can only hope that things would be more transparent.

In the meantime, the SPP’s letter to Mr Sitoh is available here: http://www.spp.org.sg/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/request-for-mr-sitoh-to-retain-employment-of-potong-pasir-town-council-staff.pdf

Where do we go now?

For the last 20 to 25 years, I have had this feeling that our country had lost its soul. I might even add that maybe we didn’t really develop a soul after independence in 1965. We had become mere digits in a giant GDP focused machine.

Many of my friends and some of my relatives have gone away to work overseas or have relocated and given up their citizenship. If you were to ask most of them what the reason for leaving was, one inevitable reason would be that our country was missing a soul. Some would talk about it in terms of the politics here. Others would lament the lack of a balanced lifestyle. Still others may speak of the lack of a creative environment.

To me, these are all interrelated reasons. Our politics has stifled our cultural environment. The ruling party’s overriding focus on economic growth at the expense of everything else has stunted our development as a nation. After all these years of independence, why are we still not a nation yet? (Mr Lee Kuan Yew asserted as much in 2009 when he insisted that we are still not a nation.)

The answer lies in the fact that for too long the PAP has relied on a top-down model of governance that has stifled the voice of the people. Whilst you are trying to lead a whole community, the voice of the people might feel like a cacophony that distracts you from your primary purpose. But, within that cacophony is a yearning for ownership. Each individual wants to have the dignity of being the creator of his own destiny. This collective yearning to be creators, and therefore co-creators of the community’s destiny, should not be shut out. But, this is what the PAP has done in all these years of governing this country.

The PAP leaders have acquired a ‘we know best’ persona and have refused to hear or accommodate dissenting voices or views. This has manifested itself in a range of ways. Letters written to the forum pages of the state media may not readily be published if they are overly critical of the government. Responses from government departments or ministers have adopted a ‘trust-us-this-is-good-for-you’ approach rather than to suggest that they would consider the complaints and look into how things could be improved. This may sound trivial. But, psychologically this is something valuable for the people. We can feel that we have expressed our frustrations and that these frustrations have not only been heard but that they may possibly be the basis on which policy decisions are made.

At the extreme end of the spectrum, too many Singaporeans have grown up with a sense of fear as to what could happen to them if they voiced their views in public. Detentions under the Internal Security Act had caused many of us to fear a government that we saw increasingly as being bent on retaining its grip on power through whatever means possible. The 1987 detentions under Operation Spectrum were pretty unconvincing in terms of the reasons supplied by the state. Roman Catholic church members, social workers and lawyers: these are hardly the kind of people that we consider to be dangerous communist insurgents. But, the government through the state media tried to sell that story to us. Some of us bought it. Many didn’t. But, amongst the many that didn’t buy into the reasons, we certainly got entangled in the state of fear that the arrests induced.

Singapore society fell silent. Social activists fell silent. The Law Society fell silent. We knew that it was not prudent to criticize the ruling party or to speak in support of opposition parties. I remember for a long period of time that any conversation critical of the PAP or its leaders had to be conducted within the privacy of our homes or if in a public place, with hushed tones so as not to attract the attention of some ISD operative. You could be in a coffee shop and the conversation could veer into politics and friends would uneasily glance over at other tables especially if there is a lone individual sipping his coffee for an endless period of time.

As a concurrent development in the 1980s, the youth of that time were displaying dissent at the ballot box. (Presumably it was the youth as LKY was pretty upset with the younger generation at that time.) At its peak the opposition managed to get 4 seats in Parliament and had reduced the PAP’s popular vote to 61%. That was in 1991. Since then the PAP has been effective through redrawing of boundaries and the extensive usage of the GRC system to effectively neuter the opposition and limit them to Hougang and Potong Pasir.

By the time we stepped into the 1990s, it was becoming clear that voicing your views against the PAP was not a prudent thing to do. In the 1990s, we moved from ISA detentions to defamation suits. In a country where the pursuit of wealth or at least economic survival is of penultimate importance, the threat of defamation suits was a powerful weapon against dissent.

But, the last five years have been different in many ways. Little by little people were voicing out their views and getting away with it (with the exception of the law extending its arm now and then to show who’s the boss). The internet gave us two things: an avenue for alternative news and an avenue for venting our frustrations. The 2011 general elections saw online criticism of the PAP reach fever pitch with some really nasty and heated comments being dished out by disgruntled individuals. For the first time in a general election we had policy issues to grumble about and the discussions were not merely about checks and balances in Parliament. (But, arguably the a sizeable percentage of voters have matured enough to realize that the best way to effect policy changes is to have an effective system of checks and balances in Parliament)

Ironically, the government’s decision to adopt a light-touch approach to the internet as well as the decision to allow the internet to be used as a campaign platform became a sword against the PAP. The opposition parties do not have the organizational strength of the PAP nor the kind of structural reach into the population through grassroots organizations. But, through the internet and the internet-savy youth, they penetrated well into the hearts and minds of a frustrated population. Alternative news could not be ignored. The mainstream media could not ignore the online chatter. The PAP leaders could not ignore the sheer anger that was being displayed by the population during the campaign period. All that led to that historic day of ministerial apologies and we felt that Goliath, whilst not slain, was made to have a good hard look at himself (even if he may find it difficult to really alter himself).

Polling day came. More than 800,000 people made their roar audible. A GRC fell. Several GRCs were close. A warning has been served.

We stand now at the threshold of a new dawn. This is liberation day all over again. Not liberation from a colonial power but liberation from the fear that had gripped our nation. Suddenly, we realize that there is nothing to fear. The mighty PAP is fallible. The present leaders are not going to come down on us with the ISA. They appear willing to let us have our say and not quash us or our views.

During the election campaign period, many volunteered their services for the opposition parties. To do this in Singapore takes tremendous courage and a sense of self-sacrifice. Many had to battle disapproval from family members or colleagues or superiors. After the elections were over, many came forward to volunteer their services. I know of many (usually younger than me) who have voiced the intention to serve on the ground with opposition parties either as members or simply as grassroots volunteers.

One thing is clear: Anyone who volunteers in this manner to serve opposition parties is not trying to gain some kind of benefit for himself. The unfortunate fact about most people who join existing grassroots organizations is that they seek some kind of benefit for themselves. I have a relative who urged me a long time ago to join the grassroots as I am bound to benefit through contacts and I could get better clients that way. When I first moved to Choa Chu Kang, a court clerk that I knew bumped into me and suggested that I join the RC in my zone (in which he was a member). His rallying cry was also about the benefits that I could get as a result of being a RC member. I know of many parents who volunteer their services to grassroots organizations in the hope that they will get preference for the primary school where they intend to send their kids. There is only one thing to say about this. It is pure selfishness and self-interest at play. There will surely be some who join purely out of a sense of service and I am not going to lump them up in this generalization.

Unlike the grassroots organizations from which the PAP draws its strength where sycophancy is often the order of the day, the volunteers that are now coming forward to help the opposition cause carry a serious message through their actions. They want change. They want to live their lives with a sense of purpose. This purpose is not in fulfilling their own narrow interests but in pursuing the greater good of Singapore. The political stranglehold that the PAP has had in our country has sucked out almost the last drop of the idealism and hope that we were born with. But now, something has changed. Something magical has happened.

People are rising up. There is a momentum created during the days of the campaign period that has not gone away. Many are carrying this flame in their hearts and surely more and more capable and passionate people will step forward to join the opposition parties. The next general elections will see the opposition fielding very strong candidates with tremendous passion. This is something the PAP is going to be lacking: passion. It already lacks this and it is failing to attract passionate individuals. Neutered unionists, technocrats and individuals climbing up the PAP-engineered meritocratic ladder are the types that the PAP can churn out. Individuals with a passion for the people are inevitably going to cross over the line and towards the opposition.

What do we do now? There is an important political milestone to be reached in our country. We have to prevent the PAP from amending the constitution whenever it deems it fit. Constitutional amendments must be done only when there is a cross-party support for such measures. To ensure this, the opposition must obtain sufficient seats in Parliament to prevent the PAP from having a 2/3 majority.

30 seats in Parliament for the opposition and the PAP’s stranglehold will be broken. That is the target.

This is achievable even by the next election. Those of us that are committed to building an active democracy must do our part. We could volunteer to assist in the grassroots activities of opposition parties. We could monitor the state media and expose any propaganda. We could continue to highlight the policy failures of the government and socio-economic issues encountered by Singaporeans. We could continue to campaign for the reform of the law and our legal system.

We want a just society. We want an equal society. We want a democratic society.

This is not too much to ask or too much to seek to accomplish. It is nothing more than what we have been pledging to do all those years in our school days. For once, the pledge can mean something. We now have a chance to cease to be hypocrites and really do what we have been pledging to do.

“We, the Citizens of Singapore, pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion, to build a democratic society based on justice and equality, so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.”

Town Councils - conflict of interest?

A couple of interesting revelations have arisen after the general elections in Singapore this year. These are worth pursuing in the interest of transparency. In the end, I suspect that there may not be anything to be concerned about. But, prima facie, there appears to be a potential for conflict of interest in the management of some town councils.

I am not prepared to jump the gun and declare that there has been an obvious case of conflict. There are so many details that are missing that it is impossible to state with any degree of certainty whether conflict might exist.

Soon after the elections, information surfaced that the General Manager of Aljunied GRC was also the Managing Director of CPG Facilites Management Pte Ltd. This is the company that was awarded the town management contract at Aljunied Town Council. Now that Aljunied has fallen to the opposition Workers Party, there will be a handover of the Town Council management pretty soon.

In an article in the Straits Times on 12th May 2011 regarding the handover of the Aljunied Town Council, the following was stated:

“Aljunied Town Council is now managed by CPG Facilities Management, with whom the town council signed a three-year contract last year. CPG managing director Jeffrey Chua is the town council’s general manager. As the town council managing agent, CPG engages the services of other companies for services such as cleaning, maintenance and lift rescue.”

On the surface, the idea that the same person is the General Manager of the Town Council as well as the Managing Director of CPG appears to be a conflict of interest.

Not too long after this, there emerged news that an employee of Esmaco Pte Ltd working at Jurong Town Council had been sacked. There were allegations about her being sacked because of her election campaign activities when she was supporting the National Solidarity Party. This was denied by her employers. In the midst of this, it has turned out that Mr Ho Thian Poh is both the General Manager of the Jurong Town Council and the Managing Director of UGL Premas Ltd. Esmaco Pte Ltd, which is the managing agent of Jurong Town Council, is in fact a subsidiary UGL Premas Ltd.

So, we now have a situation where the GM position in two Town Councils has been occupied by individuals in a directorial capacity in the companies that have been awarded the contract to be managing agents.

I did a quick check on the names of all the General Managers or Secretaries in the various Town Councils. They are as follows. (I have also included the companies that are carrying out the estate management in these estates):

Aljunied Town Council Jeffrey CHUA Leong Chuan
CPG Facilities Management Pte Ltd.

Ang Mo Kio - Yio Chu Kang Town Council WAN Chong Hock
CPG Facilities Management Pte Ltd.

Bishan-Toa Payoh Town Council LING Ming Chuan

East Coast Town Council S Sasidharan NAIR
EM Services Pte Ltd

Holland-Bukit Panjang Town Council TENG Ann Boon, Albert
EM Services Pte Ltd

Hong Kah Town Council Ms Christina GOH
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Hougang Town Council Ms HOW Weng Fan

Jalan Besar Town Council LIM Kee Ee
EM Services Pte Ltd

Jurong Town Council HO Thian Poh
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Marine Parade Town Council Ms PNG Chiew Hoon
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Pasir Ris-Punggol Town Council Ms KWOK Wei Kin
EM Services Pte Ltd

Potong Pasir Town Council

Sembawang Town Council SOON Min Sin
EM Services Pte Ltd

Tampines Town Council LEONG Shee Wing
EM Services Pte Ltd

Tanjong Pagar Town Council Simon KOH Tee Chuan
EM Services Pte Ltd

West Coast Town Council TAY Eng Hwa
Esmaco Pte Ltd & EM Services Pte Ltd



http://apfm.org.sg/apfm/sub/members.html
The Association of Property and Facilities Managers lists Teng Ann Boon, Albert as being from EM Services Ltd. He is the General Manager at the Holland - Bukit Panjang Town Council.

A google search on Christina Goh throws up a ‘Linkedin’ profile with a past employment at UGL Premas. There is no way of verifying whether this is the same Christina Goh at Hong Kah Town Council.

The bottom line is that a simple search on the internet does not throw up any web of connections. More digging is needed to get to the bottom of this… if at all there is anything to be uncovered.

Assuming a person is a General Manager of a town council, is there necessarily a conflict of interest if he is also a director of the company that is appointed as a managing agent of the town council? Much will depend on the nature of the GM’s role. If the arrangement is that the town council awards the contract to a company like Esmaco and as part of that contract Esmaco appoints it employee or director to be the GM of the town council, then this arrangement would not on its own amount to a conflict. Presumably, the town council could still call the shots in terms of the contractual obligations of Esmaco and could still hold Esmaco accountable for any breach of service standards. The GM would effectively be an employee of Esmaco and he would be in charge of fulfilling Esmaco’s contractual obligations to the town council.

There would be an unpardonable conflict of interest if a person is at first appointed as a GM of the town council and then he is in charge of procuring the estate management contract and he proceeds to procure the services of Esmaco where he is a director or he is a director of Esmaco’s parent company. I doubt that this was the nature of the arrangement between the town council and Esmaco. It is more likely that Esmaco was appointed to manage the estate and the GM was appointed as Esmaco’s representative under the contract. He is probably under the payroll of Esmaco as well.

There are other issues that can potentially arise out of the way these town councils are managed. If the GM was involved in the process of awarding specific contracts for instance for tiling works or building covered walkways, how is the process managed in the town council. Does the town council leave Esmaco and its representative to decide on the contracts to be awarded and accordingly the pricing involved or does the town council exercise direct control over the process or at least some oversight. Given that estate management in PAP wards is being contracted out to private companies, the important question to be asked is the level of oversight that is being exercised over the way in which these companies operate.

If we look at the CPG Facilities Management website, we can see that as part of the township management services they perform, they carry out fund management and investment as well. http://www.cpgfm.com.sg/township.shtml

It is not clear whether all private companies carrying out estate management services in fact engage in investment on behalf of the town councils. If they do, this is another area to be concerned about in terms of the extent of oversight and control exercised by the town council itself.

But of course, if contrary to my conservative opinion, it turns out that there is something more to the position held by these GMs, then let the proverbial shit hit the fan.

Change: My wish list (non-exhaustive)

PAP is singing the tune of change... As for myself, I would love to see the following changes. But, I already suspect that none of these would transpire until more opposition voices enter Parliament. (or the PAP is voted out of power)

1. Abolish detention without trial
2. Repeal the mandatory death penalty
3. Repeal s.377A of the Penal Code
4. Amend laws that reverse the burden of proof and place the same on the defendant. (e.g. Misuse of Drugs Act)
5. relinquish control over the local media by repealing the Newspapers and Printing Presses Act
6. Politicians should cease to institute defamation suits
7. Lay bare the accounts of Temasek Holdings and GIC and specifically set out the salaries of office bearers
8. Reveal the details of our national reserve
9. reveal the per unit cost of construction of HDB flats
10. what component of CPF monies are invested by the state and what are the returns on the investment
11. Amend the Films Act to make it compliant with the Constitution
12. Amend the Public Order Act to allow for peaceful assemblies
13. Abolish the GRC system and revert back to the single member constituency system
14. move the elections department out of the PM’s Office and create an independent Electoral Commission to administer elections
15. Legally constrain the Boundary Committee to redraw electoral boundaries only for the purpose of reflecting demographic changes and restrict such changes to once every 15 years
16. Remove restrictions on the arts scene

Change from within?

The catchword for GE 2011 has become ‘change’. Whatever else may or may not have happened and whatever change may be due to take place, the political landscape in Singapore has changed irrevocably in a noticeably powerful way. Our collective fear of the PAP has been smashed in a dramatic fashion. I know that a significant number of people still experience that fear. However, thanks to the social media, for many of us this general election campaign has enabled us to find a voice and a very loud one at that.

All of this noise making has, it appears, forced the PAP leadership to re-examine itself. It is too early to tell if the PAP leaders would in fact change their policies and modify their authoritarian style of government. I am still skeptical. We have heard before about the supposed change in the style of government. But, past actions do not bear out any real attempt at fulfilling those promises.

As it stands right now, it appears to me still that the leadership is engaged in perception management more than anything else. I am not convinced that they are really going to look at their policies to see how they may be changed. I suspect that they may try to explain their policies in a more palatable fashion.

The following is an article that appeared in the Today paper on 13th May 2011 entitled “I wondered how leaders would react: Tan Chuan-Jin”:

BG Tan said what needs to be done is to change the perception that the PAP is a long—time ruling party that is quick to look past public views — even though it has made policy decisions with the best of intentions.
"It’s sometimes hard to pinpoint what exactly sparked that perception. But perception is reality and it’s important because if that perception is widespread, it will erode that sense of support ... and the mandate where the people trust you to make long—term strategic decisions," he said.

My worry is that in the end, the next five years becomes an endless exercise in underlining the official narratives that continue to keep the majority of Singaporeans convinced that this country cannot survive without the PAP. We are a small island with no natural resources. We are surrounded by hostile or potentially hostile neighbours. Our economic progress was solely due to the enlightened economic policies of the PAP. That such economic progress is not compatible with ‘confrontational’ politics. That our society is so fragile that it is just poised to break into chaos if freedoms are given to Singaporeans. That the past track record of a previous generation of leaders is indicative of the present and future performance of PAP leaders. I could go on.

The election campaign on the last day and the subsequent comments by the PAP leaders as well as forum page letters in the Straits Times all indicate a trend where:
a) the PAP leadership has realised that the level of unhappiness on the ground borders on anger and hatred;
b) they have decided that an apology and a promise to change would be the best way to limit the fallout;
c) they don’t appear thoroughly or even mildly convinced that their policies are wrong or may be wrong;
d) they seem to have a sense that Singaporeans have not fully understood government policies and explanations and that there is a breakdown in the communication

What I worry the most is that the campaign of perception management that the PAP leadership may engage in over the next few years might achieve the objective of pulling back the popular vote in PAP’s favour without any real change that the some of us desire; i.e. a change in failed policies, greater accountability for policy decisions and transparency through an effective system of Parliamentary checks and balances.

GRCs – where do we go from here?

The Group Representation Constituency system was introduced in the 1988 elections ostensibly for the purpose of ensuring minority representation in Parliament. In the 2011 general elections, the PAP has lost 2 of its ministers through the loss of Aljunied GRC. The Workers’ Party raised the stakes by placing its best candidates in Aljunied knowing that the closet election battle in the last election was fought in this GRC. They won the bet.

Now, more than ever before, there is an urgent need to talk about the GRC system. There is an urgency to deal with this system whilst PAP supporters themselves are bitter with the loss of George Yeo. For a long time, opposition supporters have maintained that the GRC system unfairly disadvantages opposition parties and favours the incumbent. Well, it is equally dangerous for the PAP: the loss of a GRC means the loss of at least one or two ministers depending on the particular GRC.

Let us examine the stated rationale for the GRC system and whether it has any merits:

Minority representation

The official reason for the introduction of the GRC system in 1988 was to ensure that candidates from minority races can still be represented in Parliament. Was Singapore in danger of voting along racial lines back then in the 1980s? The evidence shows that PAP candidates of Indian and Malay origin had little difficulty in defeating Chinese opponents from opposition parties. Equally true is the fact that the first opposition MP to enter into Parliament was JB Jeyaretnam of the Workers’ Party in a constituency where the majority of residents were Chinese. The truth is that Singaporeans had not been voting along racial lines as at 1998 and it remains true that Singaporeans have not been voting along racial lines since then.

Indeed, one would be hard pressed to find a Singaporean who would vote along racial lines. Most Singaporeans can be classified into pro-PAP, anti-PAP, pro-a-particular-opposition party or just simply apathetic or unconcerned.

People vote along racial lines? Here in Singapore? We don’t buy that.
We may be told to rewind the clock back to the 1950s and 1960s. We may be told that racial divisions were real and were about to tear our society apart. We may be told that even though we notice such divisions today, they are still there below the surface waiting to blow up in our face at the slightest instigation.
If we are to believe that, then we must accept that 4 decades of nation building has been a failure; 4 decades of talking about racial harmony has been a failure; 4 decades of attempting to build a Singaporean identity has been a failure. But, I find that hard to accept.

Sure. There are racists in Singapore. There is racial discrimination here and there. Singaporeans have racial stereotypes about each other. But, to the credit of the Chinese majority in Singapore, they have never derided their politicians because of their race. Many minority race candidates from the PAP and the opposition have been received well by the Chinese majority. We are not in danger of slipping into a race based voting pattern. I know of so many Chinese friends who speak adoringly of JBJ and have a lot of contempt for LKY. Race has not been a factor in the way that the majority race votes in Singapore and with the high degree of tolerance and integration that we have amongst Singaporeans, it is unlikely that race will become a factor in the foreseeable.

So, the need to ensure minority race protection is nothing more than a hypothetical argument. In 1988, the PAP government was trying to ‘solve’ a hypothetical problem. Now, let us assume for a moment that minority race representation in Parliament is an issue to be catered for. Is the GRC system necessarily the best way to deal with it? Can’t such protection be ensured through a minimum quota of seats in Parliament? Under the present system, there are 15 GRCs. That translates into a reservation of 15 minority race seats in Parliament. If minority race representation is the true reason for introducing the GRC system, I suggest that a better system of ensuring minority race representation would be to reserve 15 constituencies as minority race seats. Any political party fielding candidates in those constituencies must field a person from a minority race. (I am personally opposed to this idea of creating a quota. But, playing ball with the PAP’s officially stated rationale, an alternative and better approach to the GRC would be a SMC system with a fixed quota for minorities)

What the GRC system really does is that it shields weaker candidates from electoral defeat. Back in 2009 I had blogged about manipulation of the electoral system and in that context the following analysis of Eunos GRC is something stand by still:

“Given the lack of proportionality that is inherent in the system, layering the GRC over it helps to aggravate the disproportionality. With the introduction of the GRC system, it is possible that some MPs that may have lost their individual seats are rescued by stronger candidates in other constituencies. The practice of having a Minister head a GRC team places an apprehension in the minds of voters that if the team loses, the Minister would no longer be able to serve in his office. Weak candidates within the GRC would benefit from the presence of a Minister on their team.

Let us take the Eunos GRC example. In the 1988 elections, Eunos GRC was a 3 member ward. The votes in favour of PAP – 36,500. The votes in favour of WP – 35,221. If the 3 constituencies that were a part of the GRC were single member constituencies in that elections, it is highly likely that at least one of the PAP candidates would have lost his seat. It is likely that Francis Seow would have won a seat in his constituency. In fact, with a vote difference of 1,279 votes, I would not be surprised if 2 PAP MPs had in fact lost to the opposition in the Eunos GRC(if only the Elections Department were to release the detailed results).

The same analysis can be applied to the Eunos GRC of the 1991 elections. This time around it was composed of 4 constituencies. PAP obtained 45,833 votes as opposed to 41,673 for the WP. With a vote difference of 4,160, again it is likely that at least one of the PAP candidates would have lost the seat in a conventional single member seat.

Through the GRC system, the PAP has managed to keep some of its MPs in Parliament where they would otherwise have found it tough going in a single member constituency. The growth in the size and number of GRCs was accompanied by the disappearance of most of the single member constituencies. This is another unique form of electoral management that has ensured the PAP’s continued super-majority in Parliament.”


The fact is that through the GRC system PAP had managed in the early years of its introduction to avoid losing seats in Parliament to candidates that would have posed a serious threat in Parliament such as Francis Seow and Tang Liang Hong. Single member constituencies that were too hot for the PAP to handle such as Bukit Batok, Bukit Gombak and Ulu Pandan (amongst others) were quickly obsorbed into GRCs. The GRCs started growing in size from the original 3 member groups to 5 and 6 member groups. Over time, it has also become evident that the GRC system is a useful way by which the PAP is able to regenerate itself and to train newbies. Every new candidate introduced in a general election by the PAP is shielded by a Minister or two in a GRC. People would generally not dare to vote out a minister and the new candidate would effectively be protected that way. This rationale has been evident in the PAP rhetoric in the last two elections and in fact it was elevated to a new level in this election this year.

PAP ministers have been repeating the warning that a Minister could be lost if voters went against the PAP in a GRC. In the 2006 election, much was made about George Yeo’s experience and credentials as a Foreign Minister. In the 2011 election, we have seen again how the PAP made much ado about the possibility of losing a Minister if Aljunied GRC were to be lost.

So, it has come to pass. Aljunied has been lost to the Workers’ Party. The residents of Aljunied have rejected the PAP’s arguments. The desire for a voice in Parliament has been so overwhelming that the WP team in Aljunied pulled off a vote swing of 10% in a GRC where precincts were moved out into Ang Mo Kio GRC and precincts were brought in from Marine Parade in an attempt by the incumbent to dilute pro-opposition votes.

Low Thia Khiang said on nomination day that it is time to teach the PAP a lesson. Well, the lesson has been delivered. But, has the PAP learnt anything?

And there is one more thing. This election has really exposed the GRC system in a big way. Tin Pei Ling can become an MP. Half a dozen faceless individuals in the PAP ranks can become MPs. But, George Yeo, Tan Jee Say, Vincent Wijeysinha and several other credible individuals can be left out of Parliament. The net effect: the GRC system is inherently inefficient in delivering the best outcome. The most credible candidates would enter Parliament in a straight one to one contest. But, in a system that shields the incompetent, Parliament suffers in quality.

To summarise:
1. I don’t buy the argument that GRCs protect minorities.
2. If we really want to protect minorities, we could have a fixed quota of SMCs for that purpose.
3. GRCs have favoured the PAP because of the all-or-nothing effect that they produce
4. GRCs permit less than competent candidates to enter Parliament through the presence of Ministers
5. When a GRC is lost due to backlash, a good PAP candidate can be lost along with the whole team

There is one more point that I did not make above. The first past the post system that we have inherited from the British is not representative of the votes of the people. The GRC system amplifies this problem and our Parliament has become dramatically unrepresentative. 6 seats out of 87 seats as representation for 40% of the population that voted for the opposition? That is atrocious.

Change?

The 7th of May has come and gone. Many of us were harping on the message of change. For some, it was as grandiose as a defeat of the PAP and the formation of a coalition government. For others, it was about denying the PAP a 2/3 majority. But, I believe, for most it was about making a breakthrough in a GRC.

In the heat of the campaigning, it was becoming increasingly clear from all the noise-making on social media platforms such as Facebook and from all the conversations that we were having with friends and relatives that something was happening. There was a shift against the PAP. A wave of anger. This was made worse by the almost arrogant insistence by Ministers that there would be no policy shifts and the veiled and direct threats that were made to the electorate generally and to voters in Aljunied in particular.

For a while, some of us sensed that Holland-Bukit Timah might fall to SDP in addition to a victory for the Workers’ Party in Aljunied. As more and more of us raised our voice in whatever way possible, we became more and more hopeful that something exceptional was going to happen on 7th May 2011. My own rational wish on cooling off day was that WP must take Aljunied and the votes must swing against the PAP to bring their majority to 60%. On polling day, both wishes came true. But, I felt a little empty because of so many close fights and of course the hyped up expectation of a totally surprising result. The surprise didn’t materialize.

With the heat of the election battle cooling off, and after rationally analyzing the opposition performance, I must say that there has been a significant change in this election. This is the highest number of opposition MPs in post-independence Singapore. This is the lowest percentage of popular votes garnered by the PAP.

More significantly, more than 800,000 Singaporeans voted for the opposition. During the campaign period, fear was rapidly disappearing from the minds of Singaporeans. We were saying stuff on our blogs. We were tweeting bold messages. Our Facebook updates were becoming ever more daring. We were publicly discussing politics with our friends, colleagues and relatives. We were not shy or fearful of discussing the topic in public places. Fear: a powerful tool in the hands of the PAP was now disappearing from our minds. I know of friends who had voted for the PAP previously out of fear or had spoilt their votes previously for that reason, who had decided in this election to cast away that fear. (Reality check – I also know of some who did not manage to do it and at the last minute succumbed to the fear of some backlash)

Of all the things that we can say about GE 2011 (be it the quality of opposition candidates, the disciplined messaging of WP and SDP, the off-message statements of PAP candidates, the sideshow involving Tin Pei Ling and Nicole Seah, the unprecedented apologies of Ministers, the swelling crowds at opposition rallies, the unrestricted usage of new media and the shameless lies of the New Paper), the one undeniable thing that has stood out for me is the lifting of the fear factor from the minds of so many Singaporeans.

Change has come.

Now, we have more work to do.

http://www.facebook.com/update_security_info.php?wizard=1#!/video/video.php?v=1753951563382&comments

Ministerial Responsibility, the PAP and the General Elections

We are in a rather curious position in Singapore whereby the General Elections this year could become a referendum on the performance of individual Ministers.

There exists in Commonwealth countries and more particularly in the United Kingdom, the convention of Ministerial Responsibility. The basic premise of the convention is that Ministers are individually accountable to Parliament for their personal conduct, the policies they device and the failures of their respective Ministries. This accountability manifests itself in the form of Parliamentary scrutiny and questioning and often calls for Ministers to demonstrate such responsibility and accountability by resigning from their posts. This would often depend on the severiity of the Ministerial failing.

Three ministers in Singapore could be said to be in line to be held accountable for policy failings or mismanagement: Wong Kan Seng, Mah Bow Tan and Vivian Balakrishnan. Their respective failings in terms of the Mas Selamat escape, the Housing issue and the YOG budget could have been occasions for some blood-letting in countries like the UK. Ministerial resignations may have been in order based on the constitutional concept of Ministerial responsibility.

In Singapore, the 3 Ministers have escaped unscathed. Given that the PAP has an overwhelming majority in Parliament, it is virtually impossible to operate some sort of Ministerial responsibility convention in Singapore. But, Ministerial responsibility in countries like the United Kingdom is a practice that evovled from political pressures rather than a rule that was created for deliberate and consistent enforcement. Given that we are following the Westminster model of government in Singapore, one might expect the convention to apply here as well. However, the political reality of one party dominance has meant that Ministerial responsibility is not a concept that is alive and well.

But, given the way that the election battles are shaping up and the way that opposition teams in the GRCs are angling their arguements, I wouldn't be surprised if Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Tampines GRC and Holland-Bukit Timah GRC results represent a form of referendum on the performance of the Ministers. The opposition parties have not been pushing on such an agenda. Nevertheless, it is clear that in many of the rally speeches, the YOG budget, the Mas Selamat escape and the affordability of housing has become a constant refrain.

Assuming the voters are listening carefully and getting the relevant access to information, the aforesaid three GRCs could be turned into a battleground to assess and deliver verdicts on the performance of the 3 ministers. I don't see such a concerted strategy to raise direct Ministerial accountability to the electorate as a GE issue. Some speakers have called upon Ministers to answer for their failings. This is being used as a method of highlighting the fact that the high and mighty PAP has its own flaws and failings. But, the opposition parties could convert the general election agenda into an opportunity for the voters to judge the performance of individual ministers.

Afterall, the PAP has been using the GRC system to scare voters that if they vote out a GRC team, they would lose a Minister. Well, there is nothing stopping us then from considering the election as an opportunity to carry out a performance appraisal of the Minister concerned and throw him out if he has underperformed or made mistakes or his ministry has committed grave errors. The GRC is won on the strength of a Minister. On the strength of a Minister, unknown, untested, inexperienced individuals enter into Parliament. Why can't we then sack the entire GRC team if the Minister has failed in his functions?

Ministerial Responsibility can be ensured by a voter backlash. The opposition parties could ramp it up over the next few days and turn the election in those three GRCs into a referendum. That would be interesting.

Low in Aljunied: Masterstroke or Fatal Mistake?

Low Thia Khiang, looking like a brilliant general, gave a press conference after filing his nomination papers at Aljunied GRC. Nobody expected him to venture out of Hougang SMC. That’s his fortress. That’s where he has built up loyal support. His decision to cross over to Aljunied GRC has caught everyone by surprise.

This decision could turn out to be his masterstroke in what many of us are expecting to be a watershed election for the opposition in Singapore. If we assume Potong Pasir to be a safe zone and Hougang to similarly be a safe zone for the opposition, this huge gamble by him to cross over into Aljunied could finally win a GRC for the opposition. That would be 4 seats from Aljunied for a minimum of 6 opposition MPs in Parliament. It would inflict a major defeat on the PAP even though, to be honest, it in no way breaks PAP’s overwhelming control of Parliament. We would perceive this to be a major defeat because losing that GRC would involve the loss of two Cabinet Ministers. In the words of Low Thia Khiang, it would teach the PAP a lesson.

But, everything could go awfully wrong for the opposition. Chiam See Tong did not do particularly well in the last election at Potong Pasir. The margin of victory is one that the PAP could easily overhaul if Potong Pasir residents don’t view Mrs Chiam to be as dependable as her husband. Similarly, if the Hougang voters were more captured by Mr Low’s charisma than the Workers’ Party’s agenda, then Hougang could be lost too.

Aljuneid GRC was the most closely fought battleground in the last election in 2006. In its previous incarnations as Eunos GRC and Cheng San GRC, that part of Singapore has been a breeding ground for strong opposition support but always falling short. At every election, the boundaries have been redrawn for that region and any serious assault by the opposition has been neutralized. The closest outcome was 49.11% for the WP in the 1988 election when it was Eunos GRC. In the last election, the WP obtained 43.91% of the valid votes cast.

Based on the boundaries as redrawn for this election it is clear that 7 precincts have been moved out from Aljuneid to Ang Mo Kio GRC. These could have been areas with large opposition support. 6 precincts from Marine Parade GRC have been moved into Aljuneid GRC. This could neutralize opposition support. In the end, it could be a close fight and the WP could end up losing.

Such a scenario is not improbable and our Parliament might go back to where it was 30 years ago when all seats were occupied by the PAP before JBJ broke into Parliament in the 1981 Anson by-election. That is the doomsday scenario for the opposition. But, it is a scenario that does not bode well for the future of our country. It is extremely unhealthy for so much of pent up frustration to exist on the street and have no voice in Parliament. (And for God’s sake, NCMPs don’t count as a voice when they lack the powers of an elected MP.) It is quite likely that there would be a sizeable swing against the PAP of anywhere between 5% to 7% of the popular vote. Such a swing could translate into 40% of the popular vote in the country to the opposition. That, arguably would be 40% of the citizen population being disenfranchised.

The Workers’ Party gamble could go awfully wrong for the opposition as a whole. Although I hear a great deal of chatter online and on the ground that appears to express dissatisfaction, I do not think that we are going to see a massive swing in the popular vote of about 10% to 15%. Based on the previous election in 2006, the opposition only managed to get about 30% to 35% in most of the constituencies. They had a good showing in Aljunied. But, that was it. So, barring a huge electoral swing, one would not imagine the opposition scoring a win in any other GRC. Perhaps the single member constituencies could throw up some new opposition members. Perhaps not.

That’s my nightmare scenario. Let’s try the slightly more probable outcome.

Due to prevalent voter dissatisfaction, there is a 5% to 7% swing in the overall popular vote. Potong PAsir and Hougang remain with the opposition. Aljunied falls to the WP. Another 2 or 3 SMCs fall to the opposition. Likely candidates for that: Yuhua SMC, Whampoa SMC and Mounbatten SMC. So, there could be 10 opposition MPs in Parliament.

The best case scenario for the opposition would be that they capture Choa Chu Kang GRC, West Coast GRC, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Aljunied GRC, Tampines GRC, Holland-Bukit Timah… That would be 29 seats from GRCs alone. To me, that would be the ideal result to get a sudden leap into a first world parliament. That number would prevent unilateral constitutional amendments.

Well… Let’s see how things unfold. There are plenty of first time voters and plenty of young voters. This election is not going to be easy to predict.

Gridlock? In the Singapore Parliament? – That’s a red herring

Ms Indranee Rajah made a rather curious assertion in the course of her attack on the WP’s slogan to create a First World Parliament. She wants to convey the impression that with a strong opposition in parliament, policies may be blocked. This is echoed by the Law minister Mr Shanmugam as well. He says that what WP really wants to do is ‘to block constitutional amendments. They will also block other policies they disagree with.”

I’ll leave aside the main bone of contention in the to-and-fro between the WP and the PAP over WP’s slogan. But, an impression being given to the electorate is that a first world parliament as envisaged by the WP would involve the opposition effectively blocking government policies.

Let’s get this clear. If the PAP won 50 seats in this election and the opposition gets the remaining 37 seats, then any Bill tabled by the PAP will still get passed because it has the simple majority. No policy proposal is going to be blocked as the PAP has a majority. The gridlock scenario in the US is unlikely to happen here as our system is modeled on the Westminster Parliament.

Any government of the day is only formed because it has a majority in Parliament. Even in the event that there is a hung Parliament, a minority government or a coalition government must demonstrate the support of the majority in Parliament. Therefore, during any Parliamentary term where the ruling party has a majority, it is always able to implement all its policies. In fact, in the UK context it has even been asserted that the near complete fusion of the Executive and Legislature is the efficient secret of the British Constitution. The efficiency is a result of the fact that a government elected through a Parliamentary majority has the legitimate expectation of implementing its policies and in fact has the sufficient numbers in Parliament to be able to do so.

So, on the assumption of my earlier example of PAP winning 50 seats and the opposition getting a sizeable 37 seats, the opposition will not be able to cause the kind of gridlock that arose in the US. What the opposition will be able to do is to prevent Constitutional amendments from taking place. With 50 seats in Parliament, the PAP would not have a 2/3 majority and they would need opposition consent before amending the constitution. What is wrong with that? It is good to have an effective check in Parliament to prevent frivolous, partisan, imprudent, negligent or self-serving constitutional amendments from taking place.

So, if any PAP minister or candidate were to raise the gridlock issue if there is a sizeable opposition in Parliament is either naïve about the constitutional matters or is ‘throwing smoke’.

General Elections in 2009?

The PAP prepares for its elections early. There is nothing unusual in that. I think there are some early signs that the ground is being prepared for the next GE. I know. We had the last one in 2006. But, a GE after 3 years is not unusual in Singapore. I predict that there might be one towards the end of next year.

Recently, MM Lee warned Singaporeans about a freak election wiping out all that has been achieved in 5 years. SM Goh spoke virulently about winning Hougang back and urged members of grassroots organisations (who ought to be non-partisan) to question fiscal capabilities of opposition run town councils. We have seen a series of articles about the Singapore brand of governance, always intended to differentiate ourselves from Western-style liberal democracies and to defend our pragmatic bread and butter theory of governance. (A certain someone said 2000 years ago that men shall not live by bread alone.)

On 21st July 2008, the Parliamentary Elections (Amendment) Bill was tabled in Parliament for the First Reading. Of course, I wondered if they were going to change the electoral system a little bit here and a little bit there. A cursory glance of the Bill reveals that the amendments are directed at overseas voters.

In today’s Straits Times I read that MM Lee has again warned Singaporeans against voting for the opposition. The latest assessment is the Singapore miracle could disappear within 3 to 4 years; not 5 years. In an earlier post, I have addressed this issue of a ‘freak’ election. What I find interesting about the statement in today’s paper is that to placate our desire for more opposition voices, the system might make some accommodations.
'We know that Singapore wants opposition to check the PAP. We'll find a way to have more voices inside the assembly, but not at the risk of voting in a Division 2 or 3 Government.' - MM Lee

I wonder if there are now plans for more Nominated MPs. Maybe, elected Nominated MPs. MPs nominated by a Parliamentary Committee and presented to the people for an island-wide election where the best vote winners get seats. Who knows… I better not give them funny ideas.

I digress… Coming back to my original point, it appears that there is some talk in the air about elections. Not talk of the obvious kind. That would commence when the Straits Times comes out with some opinion piece or other about elections or electoral boundanries. (wait a minute - didn't they recently discuss the GRC system in ST?)
At a time when we are facing inflation and there is a segment of the population that has not experienced wage increases for the last 10 years, some would say it would be foolish for a ruling party to start talking about elections. But, the PAP is very well experienced. They are not going to call for elections the minute talk about elections has been put around. Eventually, they will wait for the 3-year mark to be crossed. The current global economic climate is somewhat uncertain. We will feel some of the effects and it is possible that this would be status quo for the next few years. So, the best strategy would be to get the people to look ahead long term, bite the bullet and stay the course. If this rhetoric of freak elections, our brand of democracy (that we ought presumably be xenophobically proud of), alternative ‘voices’ (not votes) in parliament, economic fragility, etc is maintained for about a year, it will sink into the collective psyche and form part of the overall narrative for the citizenry to accept more PAP years.

But, if the ground is not sweet towards the end of next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GE will be held off until a sweet spot opens up. So, since I’m not really a betting man, I’m not making any predictions. :-)