Punggol East: 29 out of 30 residents feel that there should be a by-election

I read the following article online:

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC121215-0000040/Punggol-East-back-in-the-spotlight

The Headline is "Punggol East back in the spotlight."  The sub-headline reads: "Many residents aren't thinking of a by-election yet; they're still in shock over the loss of an MP who was clearly popular."

My first reaction in reading the sub-headline was to think that unfortunately most Singaporeans don't seem to appreciate the need for Parliamentary representation in a democracy. 

As I read further, I came across the following:

 "...for many of the residents, the thought of going to the polls again has not sunk in yet. They are still reeling in shock over the loss of an MP who was clearly popular among the residents."

The impression that was building in me was that a majority of Punggol East residents are uninterested in the issue of having a by-election.  Further down in the article comes the following:

"Among the 30 residents TODAY spoke to, 13 felt that a by-election should be called within three months. Slightly more than half (16) felt that there was no rush, and one said there was no need to elect a new MP for the constituency."

Firstly, this is not a properly conducted survey.  So, it is not going to be sufficiently representative of residents' sentiments and a wide margin of error must be accounted for. 

I find the 'findings' made by TODAY to be rather amusing especially for the impression that they were trying to create.  Clearly, by stating that 13 felt that there should be a by-election within 3 months and more than half felt that there was no rush, TODAY is brushing over a very important fact.  Of the 30 persons interviewed, 29 actually thought that there is a need for a by-election.  Only one person thought that there was no need to elect a new MP.  If the information was presented in this way, it would not aid the overall impression that the PAP probably wants to create: that there is no necessity for a by-election and that municipal duties of the MP can be performed by an MP from a neighbouring constituency (and that many residents are not interested in a by-election). 

TODAY's unscientific straw poll (after reading in between the lines) restores (in mymind at least) some faith in my fellow citizens.  We are not about to roll over and play dead.  Clearly, many want to see the Parliamentary vacancy filled.  I expect that there is bound to be disagreement as to whether by-elections should be held as soon as within 3 months of the vacancy.  But, only the hardcore PAP apologists would preach on the merits of an empty Parliamentary seat, the acceptability of an unrepresented Constituency and the disenfranchisement of about 31,000 voters. 

Coming back to TODAY's article.  This appears to be just part and parcel of the whole business of perception management:  presenting information in a technically accurate but linguistically 'massaged' form to create the impression that there is not much public support for a by election. 

Well, so long as you keep a healthy ability of not taking information at face value, you won't be caught in the matrix. 

(To put an opposite spin the information: 96% of Punggol East residents want a by-election.  :-) )

By-election in Punggol East?

The Speaker of Parliament and MP for Punggol East, Michael Palmer has resigned from his post as Speaker, his position as the member of Parliament and his membership in the PAP.  It appears that he has had a relationship with a member of the Peoples' Association. 

I had blogged earlier this year about the Yaw Shin Leong affair and my stance on the extra marital affairs and the duties and functions of elected representatives.  I don't think that Parliamentarians and ministers should be judged on the basis of what goes on in their private lives.  What is important is the way in which the public official conducts his duties.  http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2012/02/politics-of-affairs.html

Now that Palmer's seat is vacant, we again get to visit the question of whether a by-election should or would be held.  After Yaw Shin Leong's resignation, several members of the PAP made public statements about how the calling of a by-election is entirely at the discretion of the PM.  At that time, my view of the Constitutional provision on the filling of vacancies in Parliament was pretty much straightforward.  Article 49 states that the vacancy "shall be filled by election" and that to me (and most observers) was clearly denying any discretion for the PM.  The only discretion that he could have was to delay the time within which the by-election had to be called.  http://article14.blogspot.sg/2012/02/by-election-when-not-whether.html . 

However, the Vellama case that sought to obtain a determinative pronouncement on the interpretation of Art 49, has complicated matters somewhat.  When the Hougang seat became vacant, the PAP leadership was getting heat from the people and also from the Court application.  Eventually, it relented and called for a by-election.  As it turned out, the High Court ruled against Vellama and the current legally affirmed interpretation is that the PM has discretion to decide whether and when to call a by-election.  I disagree with the Court's reasoning in that case and I blogged about this a few days ago. 

http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2012/12/the-hougang-by-election-case-belated.html

With Michael Palmer's resignation, there will be renewed calls for a by-election.  There are already facebook postings calling for a by-election in Punggol.  Workers Party (which was slow to comment on the SMRT drivers' strike) has already issued a comment on Palmer's resignation and called for by-elections to be held.  The Worker's Party's facebook posting states:

"The Workers' Party has noted the announcement today that the Speaker of Parliament, Mr Michael Palmer, has resigned from the People's Action Party.

By virtue of Article 46 of the Constitution, Mr Palmer's Parliamentary seat for Punggol East Single Member Constituency (SMC) has become vacant.

In order that the residents of Punggol East SMC are properly represented, the Workers' Party urges the Prime Minister to call a by-election in the constituency as soon as possible.

In the last General Election, the Workers' Party contested Punggol East SMC. The Workers' Party is ready to offer a choice to the voters of Punggol East SMC again in the by-election."

The PAP government's reaction to calls for a by-election would be interesting to watch.  Previously, without the benefit of the High Court judgment, they were already adament about the existence of a discretion.  Now, it would be easy for the PM to hide behind the legal interpretation and state that there is no legal requirement for him to call for a by election. 

But, what the PM must remind himself about is the fact that if indeed it is legally the PM's discretion, then politically he must exercise that discretion in a fair and reasonable manner in order not to contribute to a further reduction in the PAP's political capital.  GE 2011 may seem like a distant memory to the political leadership of the PAP.  They must remind themselves that part of the reason why they did not lose more of the popular vote was that an apology was extended midway through the election campaign.  There must have been a sizeable number of voters that were swayed by the apology.  But, 18 months after the general elections, people are beginning to get a sense that no major policy changes are lined up.  There has been more of an attempt at perception management rather than genuine policy adjustment.  I am sure that as we stand today the PAP has less political capital than it did during the general elections. 

A decision by the PM not to call for by-elections at Punggol East would add to the loss of political capital.  It is not prudent for the by-election to be postponed indefinitely.  That would be one more issue for the opposition to raise at the next GE about the high-handedness of the PAP. 

Of course, calling for a by-election at Punggol East represents a high risk for the PAP in terms of losing another seat in Parliament.  Palmer won Punggol East with 54.54% of the vote.  A vote swing of 5% would be needed for PAP to lose this seat.  In the last GE, there were a few constituencies that witnessed vote swings of between 10% to 14% (e.g. Joo Chiat = 14%) against the PAP.  But, that swing has to be seen in the light of the general election cycle (spanning 5 years) and the unusually strong anti-PAP sentiments on the ground.  It is possible that this sentiment had already been fully milked during GE 2011 and in Punggol East today we might just see a marginal swing away from the PAP of 2% to 3%. 

PAP could make the prudent calculation that there is a possibility of retaining Punggol East and at the same time coming across as not doing business as usual by doing the democratic thing: calling for by-elections.  The ball is in your court Prime Minister. 

(Meanwhile, Mdm Vellama's appeal in the Court of Appeal is still pending.  Things could still play out very differently and the court could rule that a by-election is mandatory.)