Fear Factor - Elections in Singapore

For too long, too many Singaporeans have lived in fear of voting for the opposition.  This is not the kind of fear that involves wondering if an opposition candidate can run a Town Council or if the opposition can form the government.  This is the kind of fear that involves an irrational belief that one might lose his/her job or business deals, that one would not receive priority treatment in school admissions, licensing applications or any variety of activities that require government approval. 

The reason why I am blogging about this now is that I just had a conversation with a person that openly stated that he is afraid to vote against the PAP.  He is fearful that 'they' will find out and his rice bowl will be affected.  After GE 2011, one would think that most Singaporeans would have risen above such fears.  But, it looks like such fears still persist. 

So, this is a public service announcement for all voters in Punggol East. Your vote is secret.  They can't find out for whom you voted.  Even if it is not secret, grow a spine! 803,482 of your countrymen have done just that in 2011.  Voting against the PAP has not cost them anything.  There are many civil servants amongst them that are openly vocal as well.  Nothing has happened to them.  Cast away your fear.  Vote for more checks and balances.  Vote for a healthy democracy.  Vote wisely (without fear). 

http://wp.sg/your-vote-is-secret/

http://maruah.org/2011/05/03/votewithoutfear/

If I were a Punggol East resident...

Firstly, I am not a Punggol East resident.  But, the dynamics of this by-election is quite different from the Hougang by-election and I was wondering how I would vote if I were a Punggol East resident. 

I have voted in three general elections so far and each time my vote was an anti-PAP vote rather than a genuine vote for the opposition party itself.  It is probably true to say that most Singaporean voters that vote for the opposition do so as a direct result of the need to keep the PAP's unbridled power under check. 

Judging from the online discussions, it is clear that this by-election is turning out to be as much about a vote in favour of an opposition party as it is about a vote against the PAP.  A developing issue of WP's performance in Parliament since the 2011 GE is capable of turning out to be the decider for some voters.  The issues as raised during the hustings have focused on PAP's policies, WP's performance in Parliament and the question of what SDA and RP might bring to the table if elected. 

PAP has clearly benefitted from this four-cornered fight as there has been (arguably) more discussion (amongst opposition supporters) about which opposition candidate to vote for rather than about the PAP's policies.  There is a possibility that enough disarray has been created within the opposition ranks to secure a PAP win even if the PAP polls less than 50% of the votes. 

If I were a Punggol East resident, I'd be worried about how my vote might affect the outcome.  All Singaporeans have experienced the effect of vote splitting in the First Past the Post system.  The Presidential Election in 2011 was a painful lesson for many of us.  Clearly, in a two-horse race, the non-PAP endorsed candidate would have won.  A resident in Punggol East voting for the opposition would be very wary about voting for either SDA or RP.  In the 2011 GE, WP had already picked up a sizeable chunk of the opposition vote in that ward with SDA's candidate losing his deposit. 

The only reason why a voter that voted for WP might vote otherwise in this by-election is because of the repeated noise in the mainstream media as well as online about the poor performance of WP in Parliament.  Much has been made about how they backed away from issues and failed to be combative or to provide ideas and about the fact that they have not tabled any motions for debate and have been satisfied with tabling Parliamentary questions.  (I have my reservations about some of the anti-WP rhetoric that is floating around on the net and although WP's performance can be improved, it is not as bad as it is made out to be.)

Some postings online (especially by individuals claiming to be Punggol East residents) seem to indicate that there's a possibility that SDA or RP would pick up some votes at the expense of the WP and also that there may be an increase in spoilt votes.  An increase in spoilt votes is a distinct possibility.  I was talking to a taxi driver yesterday and he was complaining about WP's performance and said that if he could vote, he would spoil his vote as a protest.  I chided him for his attitude and gave him a lecture about the importance of the vote.  We complain so much about the PAP.  But, when it comes to exercising the right to vote, we cop out.  That might have been just one taxi driver.  But, I think that it is indicative of a certain disenchantment that some voters are feeling about the WP. 

So, how would I vote?  Gaining opposition seats in Parliament as quickly as possible is of paramount importance if we are to claw back the PAP's total grip on power.  The magic number is 30 opposition seats to deprive PAP of its 2/3 majority.  Realistically, this should be the short-term goal (to be achieved by next GE or the one after that).  Every seat that is capable of turning opposition must be made to count.  Punggol East was close in the last GE.  PAP received 16,994.  The combined opposition vote was 14,164.  In terms of absolute numbers, that is a small difference to make up.  If every opposition vote goes to the WP, there is a realistic chance of displacing the PAP. 

Amongst the candidates fielded, I have to admit that Kenneth Jeyaratnam from the RP would be a very useful addition to Parliament.  (I was initially upset to see a multi-cornered fight developing and like many Singaporeans I considered RP, SDA and SDP as spoilers before changing my view on that http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2013/01/punggol-east-opposition-win.html)   Given his background and with the budget debates coming up, one can expect some serious questions to be asked about our Executive's spending.  Personally, I'd like to have someone with finance background from the opposition to be in Parliament.  But, clearly, it is unlikely that RP would garner sufficient votes.  (Sometimes I feel that KJ needs some PR guidance.)  WP and PAP would be the frontrunners.  So, as a natural progression in the first past the post system, there will be a tendency to vote tactically.  That, in fact, is what I will do.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo


I'd go for WP, not because I am thoroughly convinced that their candidate is the best, but because they have the most realistic chance of winning the seat.  Tactical voting.  (In any event, they do have a down-to-earth, likeable candidate.)

In the end, if Punggol East were to turn against White, it would be because of a significant amount of tactical voting that turned the vote blue. 

What do I expect to see on Saturday?  There will be a swing against the PAP.  The question is as to how much of a swing it would be.  There might be an increase in the number of spoilt votes.  Who's going to win?  That is anybody's guess.  But, I'd be rooting for the Hammer.

A poll during the blackout period? What was ST thinking?

Fact:   Straits Times published on 10 June 2013, the results of a poll it claimed to have conducted amongst Punggol East residents after the Writ of Election had been issued.  The best part about it was that ST openly stated that the poll was 'after' the Writ of Election. 

Fact:   It is an offence under the Parliamentary Elections Act to publish the results of a survey during the 'blackout period' (from Writ of Election to polling day).  The relevant statutory provision is:

78C. —(1) No person shall publish or permit or cause to be published the results of any election survey during the period beginning with the day the writ of election is issued for an election and ending with the close of all polling stations on polling day at the election.

(3) In this section, “election survey” means an opinion survey of how electors will vote at an election or of the preferences of electors respecting any candidate or group of candidates or any political party or issue with which an identifiable candidate or group of candidates is associated at an election.


Having been exposed by some netizens, the ST's article is now being investigated by the police. Today ran an article on 13 Jan 2013: http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC130113-0000046/Police-looking-into-ST-publication-of-by-election-poll.  Warren Fernandez's response is classic:

In response to TODAY, Editor of The Straits Times Warren Fernandez said: "Our reporters spoke with residents in Punggol East to get their comments and a sense of the ground for our election reports. This was not a full-scale survey, or scientific poll, by any means.

"The headline for our story overstated the significance of the information gathered by calling it a poll. We are sorry for this lapse. We will, of course, co-operate with the Police for any investigation," he said.



The editor of ST has inspired me to come up with some pseudo-reasons for not prosecuting ST.  By the way, if you think any of this sounds impossible, you haven't come across the case of the parachuting candidates.

Argument No. 1

The Parliamentary Elections Act deals with election offences committed by individuals and not corporations.  Though ordinarily the word 'person' is often associated in other areas of the law with both 'legal persons' (e.g. companies) as well as 'natural persons' (you and I), it is specifically a reference to 'natural persons' for the purpose of electoral law. 

SPH is a company.  It is not a natural person.  The offence refers a 'person' that publishes election surveys.  SPH published the survey.  But, SPH is not a 'person' for the purposes of the Act. 

It is not an offence to conduct a survey.  The reporters conducted the survey.  Publishing is an offence.  Conducting the survey is not. 

Causing or permitting the publication of an election survey is an offence.  Arguably, Mr Warren Fernandez could be stated to have caused or permitted the publication.  But, at all material times, Mr Fernandez was acting in his capacity as the servant or agent of SPH.  Any act of 'causing' or 'permiting' was done by Fernandez as agent of the principal, SPH.  The causing & permitting was by SPH.  SPH is a company and therefore a legal person as opposed to a natural person.  Therefore, SPH cannot be charged as reasoned out earlier. 

The reporters did not commit any offence.  Mr Fernandez did not commit any offence.  SPH did not commit offence. 

Alternatively Argument No. 2

SPH published the results of a poll.  It did not publish the results of a survey.  'Election survey' is referred to in the statute as an 'opinion survey of how electors would vote'.  According to the freeonline dictionary a 'survey' is a 'detailed inspection or investigation'.

SPH did not carry out a detailed inspection or investigation.  It did a straw poll in a haphazzard manner.  A survey is not a poll.  It is not an offence to publish the results of a poll.  It is only an offence to publish the results of a survey.  Since what was done was not a survey, the publication of the information stated in the ST article was not an offence. 

Alternatively Argument No. 3

SPH lied.  A survey was conducted.  It didn't suit SPH to publish the results of the survey.  So, SPH published 'fake' results of the survey.  It is true that SPH published the results of a supposed survey. .  But, SPH did not publish the results of the actual survey that had been conducted.  In order for an offence to be committed, the results published must be accurate results.  Otherwise, they do not qualify as results of a survey. 

Alternatively Argument No. 4

SPH lied.  No survey was conducted.  If no survey was conducted, no results could be published.  The publication of results of a fake survey is not an offence.  It is a lie but since when is lying an offence?  In fact, since SPH's detractors are so into free speech, lying is a form of free speech.  Check out this American case and you will realise that we are not wrong:  http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/articles/11-the-media-can-legally-lie/


Alternatively Argument No. 5

It was an honest mistake.  We are sorry.  Let's move on. 


(Note:  Nothing referred to herein by way of an argument or the suggestion of an argument is to be construed as being logically and/or legally tenable.) 

Punggol East: 29 out of 30 residents feel that there should be a by-election

I read the following article online:

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC121215-0000040/Punggol-East-back-in-the-spotlight

The Headline is "Punggol East back in the spotlight."  The sub-headline reads: "Many residents aren't thinking of a by-election yet; they're still in shock over the loss of an MP who was clearly popular."

My first reaction in reading the sub-headline was to think that unfortunately most Singaporeans don't seem to appreciate the need for Parliamentary representation in a democracy. 

As I read further, I came across the following:

 "...for many of the residents, the thought of going to the polls again has not sunk in yet. They are still reeling in shock over the loss of an MP who was clearly popular among the residents."

The impression that was building in me was that a majority of Punggol East residents are uninterested in the issue of having a by-election.  Further down in the article comes the following:

"Among the 30 residents TODAY spoke to, 13 felt that a by-election should be called within three months. Slightly more than half (16) felt that there was no rush, and one said there was no need to elect a new MP for the constituency."

Firstly, this is not a properly conducted survey.  So, it is not going to be sufficiently representative of residents' sentiments and a wide margin of error must be accounted for. 

I find the 'findings' made by TODAY to be rather amusing especially for the impression that they were trying to create.  Clearly, by stating that 13 felt that there should be a by-election within 3 months and more than half felt that there was no rush, TODAY is brushing over a very important fact.  Of the 30 persons interviewed, 29 actually thought that there is a need for a by-election.  Only one person thought that there was no need to elect a new MP.  If the information was presented in this way, it would not aid the overall impression that the PAP probably wants to create: that there is no necessity for a by-election and that municipal duties of the MP can be performed by an MP from a neighbouring constituency (and that many residents are not interested in a by-election). 

TODAY's unscientific straw poll (after reading in between the lines) restores (in mymind at least) some faith in my fellow citizens.  We are not about to roll over and play dead.  Clearly, many want to see the Parliamentary vacancy filled.  I expect that there is bound to be disagreement as to whether by-elections should be held as soon as within 3 months of the vacancy.  But, only the hardcore PAP apologists would preach on the merits of an empty Parliamentary seat, the acceptability of an unrepresented Constituency and the disenfranchisement of about 31,000 voters. 

Coming back to TODAY's article.  This appears to be just part and parcel of the whole business of perception management:  presenting information in a technically accurate but linguistically 'massaged' form to create the impression that there is not much public support for a by election. 

Well, so long as you keep a healthy ability of not taking information at face value, you won't be caught in the matrix. 

(To put an opposite spin the information: 96% of Punggol East residents want a by-election.  :-) )

Treating a person to induce him to attend an election rally is an offence

I know that for some time now, during election season, we have heard stories about residents being transported to PAP rallies and being given food and drinks.  There was even one youtube video (originating from the 2011 general elections) that appears to contain a "testimony" by a rally goer that she was asked to come to the rally and that food would be given to those that came. 

When the Hougang by-election campaign was going on, I blogged about whether something similar had taken place at the rallies.  Let me be clear on this.  My question is meant for both the PAP and the WP. http://article14.blogspot.sg/2012/05/any-food-drinks-or-vouchers-at-by.html

In my conversations with friends, and arising out of some comments that I have read online, it appears that many people consider 'treating' rally goers or voters as being underhanded and sometimes comically desperate.  Many people appear not to be aware of the fact that treating a person by providing food or drinks for the purpose of influencing that person's vote or inducing him to attend a rally is in fact an offence under s.58 of the Parliamentary Elections Act:

58. —(1) A person shall be guilty of treating if he corruptly, by himself or by any other person, either before, during or after an election, directly or indirectly gives or provides, or pays wholly or in part the expense of giving, any meat, drink, refreshment, cigarette, entertainment or other provision or thing or any money or ticket or other means or device to enable the procuring of any such meat, drink, refreshment, cigarette, entertainment or other provision or thing, to or for any person —

(a) for the purpose of corruptly influencing that person or any other person to vote or refrain from voting;

(b) for the purpose of inducing that person to attend or remain at any election meeting;

(c) on account of any such person or any other person having voted or refrained from voting or being about to vote or refrain from voting at the election; or

(d) on account of any such person having attended an election meeting.

As required under the law, Desmond Choo and Png Eng Huat have filed their respective Returns on election expenses.  On 2nd July 2012, the Returning Officer issued a notice under s.75 of the Parlimentary Elections Act stating that the Returns are available for inspection. http://www.eld.gov.sg/gazette/G_ParE2012/2012-07-02%20Notice%20under%20section%2075.pdf

Ordinarily, I wouldn't have been too concerned or curious about the expenses.  But, my eyebrows were raised when I read a ChannelNewsAsia article: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1210457/1/.html

There's a line in there that states: "Mr Choo said the main expenses incurred were for the rallies and meals."

Meals?  I hope that those were meals eaten by Mr Choo and his party workers that worked on the by-election campaign.  If these meal expenses went towards feeding rally goers, s.58 of the Parliamentary Elections Act could be triggered.  The Returns are available for inspection at the  Elections department for a 6 month period.  I might just pop down to take a look at the expenses if I can get away from work commitments.  (or some other blogger/reporter from TOC or TRE might do it. :-)  It would be interesting to see what sum of money was involved in relation to meals.  Similarly, it would be interesting to see if Png Eng Huat had expended such sums. 

Incidentally, for those that might be crying foul instantly and calling for the prosecution of Desmond Choo, take note of the fact that there is sufficient wriggle room in s.58 to argue that no offence was committed.  These phrases could afford some room for the benefit of doubt to be given:  "for the purpose of corruptly influencing", "for the purpose of inducing".  An individual could argue innocence on account of having provided the food or drink independant of the purposes in s.58(1)(a) or s.58(1)(b). 

Well, let us see what the explanation would be.

Why is the PAP anxious to keep national issues out of the Hougang by-election?

For starters, let us not kid ourselves. WP is going to win in Hougang. This is an opposition stronghold and I am sure the PAP leadership and their candidate for Hougang, Desmond Choo, are under no illusions as to the outcome on 26th May 2012. The Hougang constituency has gone to the Workers' Party since 1991 and the election statistics are as follows:

1991 - 52.8% for WP
1997 - 58% for WP
2001 - 55% for WP
2006 - 62.7% for WP
2011 - 64.8% for WP

The demographic change between the last General Elections and this by-election is going to be miniscule and unlikely to have any impact on the voting pattern. There is no reason to believe that voters that went for WP last year would change their minds. There is not much that has changed in the national socio-political arena to suggest that significant change could take place in the voting pattern. There is no doubt that the PAP will put up a fight. But, they would be fully prepared for defeat on 26th May.

So, why are they keen to make this out to be an election about 'local' issues and not 'national'. (Incidentally, I don't buy into that 'local' v 'national' dichotomy. This is a false dichotomy in a country like ours where the 'national' morphs into, overlaps with and is indistinguishable from the 'local' in many instances.) I suspect that the PAP is worried about the prospect of a further swing towards the WP. Even a marginal 2 to 3% increase for WP can be interpreted as growing voter disapproval of the PAP government's performance in the last year. Though it is not fair to consider the Hougang outcome (whichever way the swing of votes goes) as a referrendum on PAP's policies, it is inevitable that WP MPs will attempt to paint the by-election as a referrendum in order to push the PAP on certain policies. For instance, transportation could be made into a major issue during this by-election and if there is a vote increase in WP's favour, WP would use that a leverage in its Parliamentary arguments on that issue.

I am pretty sure that the PAP does not want to be pushed into decision making on policy matters on the basis of the outcome in a by-election. It is therefore anxious to paint this election as one that concerns itself with constituency representation and about effectively taking care of Hougang residents. A by-election as a referrendum is clearly not in the PAP's best interest.

GE 2011 & the New Normal: 1 year on

One of the more fascinating developments that has taken place after the last General Elections in May 2011 is that more and more people are coming forward to express their personal views publicly and in doing so more of them are willing to express views that may not be in keeping with the official policy line of the ruling PAP.

Whilst bloggers on the internet had already been gradually hacking away at the state's narrative for some years now, it has always been the case that academics and public figures from the mainstream would at most make rather muted comments about the status quo. Of course, we had academics like Prof Thio Li Ann (Nominated MP) who was pretty vocal during her term in Parliament on a number of legal and Constitutional issues. But, I can't help but notice that after the 2011 GE, more academics and establishment figures have come forward to express their views publicly on legal/constitutional/policy issues.

Much has been made of the so-called 'new normal'. Many Singaporeans cast away their fear at the ballot box last year. Many more were willing to show their disagreement at the Presidential Election as well (resulting in an 'unpopularly' elected President). The fear that a large segment of the population chose to jettison at the elections was a powerful signal indeed. That must have surely emboldened many public figures to come forward and express their personal disagreements with the official policy position.

Amongst the figures coming forward to set out a differing viewpoint (and sometimes in a critical fashion as well) are:
1. SMU Prof Kevin Tan (in relation to the Hougang by-election issue, he locked horns with PAP MP and Senior Counsel Hri Kumar)
2. Prof Lim Chong Yah of NTU (he made a somewhat radical proposal to introduce a form of shock therapy to address the problem of income equality)
3. Prof Tommy Koh (Ambassador at Large) - (acknowledging that Singapore's large scale import of low-skilled labour is depressing wages here)
4. Yeoh Lam Kheong (Institute of Policy Studies Senior Adjunct Fellow) and Kishore Mahbubani (LKY School of Public Policy Dean) have spoken in similar vein about the importation of low-skilled labour.

It is good to see that well-reasoned dissenting voices are surfacing more and more. This bodes well in the next phase of our nation's development. As we engage more openly in debate and consider and reconsider policy position more rigourously, we stand to benefit as a nation. It may not work out too well for the PAP as more reasoned dissent from the established views will undermine the PAP's stranglehold on information. But, we must be under no illusions that the nation is more important than a political party. Our country needs this type of open intellectual debate on policy matters.

So, as we 'celebrate' the 1st anniversary of the 'new normal', we have good reason to believe that the soul of our nation is gradually heading in the right direction. The most important thing about this development is that it is people-driven and not fed to the people by the state. Let the ideas flow from the many good minds that we have in our midst and let us recreate our soul.

George Yeo: Many had "lost faith in the government"

As reported in the media, Mr George Yeo has pretty much acknowleged that last year's poor showing (relatively speaking) in the general elections, indicates that many people had lost faith in the government.

It is good to see that with the burden of the Ministerial post off his shoulders and the lack of a Parlimanetary seat, George Yeo is able to speak his mind and admit the reality on the ground. I wonder if the extent of the populuation's loss of faith has filtered through to the leadership.

I believe that the only reason why PAP did not suffer further losses in the last GE was because there were still a sizeable number that believed that change was possible from within the Party. It was clear from the Presidential Elections that many PAP voters had voted for Dr Tan Cheng Bock instead of Dr Tony Tan (the preferred PAP candidate). This was undeniably the soft option for voters wishing to express their discontent. They got their PAP government at the General Elections but they had the possibility of a non-endorsed and yet ex-PAP member (and old-school grassroots savy PAP MP) as an option for President. In one sense, a vote against Tony Tan by those that voted for the PAP at the GE was a clear message of the displeasure felt even by that segment of the population that had supported the PAP.

The extent of the displeasure is not limited to the 40% that voted for the opposition in the GE. I believe that the Presidential Elections last year constituted a form of an opinion poll on the loss of faith felt by Singaporeans. Yes, the 1,372,847 Singaporeans that did not vote for Tony Tan indicated in various shades that the current government needs to get its act together. That was effectively 64.8% of the electorate.

I appreciate George Yeo's suggestion that we have to set aside political differences and work together as a nation. I believe that these are the tentative signs of us maturing as a nation. There is still too much bitterness in the conversations carried out across party lines. A political history of repression of alternative voices has led to too much suspicion and lack of a willingness to listen (applicable to the ruling party and the opposition supporters). We need to recognise that it is perfectly fine to have strong political views and it is healthy to engage in virulent debate. In the midst of all that we must not forget that we are friends, family, Singaporeans.

Bye Yaw, and now for the By-Election

Anson was a long time ago. CV Devan Nair vacated his seat in Parliament before his elevation to the position of President. J B Jeyaretnam participated in the by-election for the Anson constituency and recorded that historic win against the PAP. 1981 seems like a distant memory now. The PAP stranglehold on Parliament had been punctured. There was a lone voice catapulted into the legislature willing to champion the cause of the people against the mammoth PAP government.
We had not progressed that much from then. At the very best (before 2011), the opposition managed 4 seats in Parliament. But, for the most part, it was just 2 seats. It was, therefore, fitting that last year (being the 30th anniversary of the Anson victory) another milestone was crossed in Singapore's electoral history. The fall of a GRC was a big psychological boost for the opposition and its supporters. It has also ushered in an unprecedented boldness and a willingness express views fearlessly.

The GRC itself was one of the methods by which the ruling party managed to keep the opposition at bay. There is no doubt in my mind that if the GRC system had never been introduced, the PAP would have lost more seats in earlier elections. (My views on the mechanics of domination exercised through the GRC..... http://article14.blogspot.com/2009/06/uniquely-singapore-papmandering.html )

Throughout this period from the 1980s to the present, the PAP has also been careful to avoid by-elections. To me, the most disappointing moment was when the Bukit Batok MP, Ong Chit Chung, passed away. There was a conflict between the Constitution and a statutory provision and in my view the Constitution ought to prevail. They made no Constitutional amendment and they just gave elaborate excuses and convinced the masses that no by-election was necessary. (I had blogged about this before.... http://article14.blogspot.com/search/label/Bukit%20Batok ) In the end, Bukit Batok went without a member of parliament for nearly 3 years (July 2008 to May 2011).

And now, we have an opposition MP that has vacated his seat. A by-election has to be called. The problem is that our laws are silent as to the time limit for calling a by-election. Pursuant to the Constitution, when an MP is sacked by his Party, the MP's seat falls vacant. Under the Parliamentary Elections Act, the President has to issue a Writ of Election. No time limit is set for this. Under the Constitution, this is one of those powers of the President that does not come within his discretion and it is for the Cabinet to advise him. The problem now is the PM seems to think that there are pressing national issues and so he seems to suggest that a by-election is not within him immediate focus.

This is an area that has to be legislated. I hope that this issue is not left as a mere discretion and a certain timeline be set for by elections in the future. We could do it by legislation or if our politicians are mature enough a multi-party code can be devised where political parties can agree to hold by elections within a fixed time frame when there is a casual vacancy.

It is totally untenable to leave the question of a by-election hanging in the air and in fact it is irresponsible to let Hougang residents hanging in there without a member of parliament.

The Politics of Affairs

When the issue of Yaw Shin Leong's affair first surfaced, I treated it the same way that I treat all gossipy tales of sordid affairs of the rich, famous or powerful. Stories like that deserve to be consigned to the thrash can. I don't really care if a celebrity has an affair. Nor do I care if a politician has an affair.

These indiscretions and their consequences have to be dealt with by the parties involved.In the case of a politician, my only concern is about the way in which he discharges his duties and functions. I want my MP to be an effective voice in Parliament. I want him to question the policy position of the executive. I want him to scrutinise legislation effectively. I want him to be mindful of the needs of the constituents and to represent these needs to the relevant persons and bodies so as to achieve the desired outcome.

I don't want my MP to be a passive observer in Parliament. I don't want him to be a 'Yes' man with nothing to contribute by way of policy scrutiny. I don't want him to rubber stamp every legislation that comes before Parliament.

If in the course of his position as an MP or Minister, a politician has an affair or he has had an affair in the past before coming into politics, none of this is of concern to me. I apply this principle equally to PAP MPs and Ministers as I would to opposition MPs. I remember hearing rumours about a certain PAP MP having an affair a long time ago. It was a rumour that had heavy circulation within the legal profession. I wanted no part of it as it was of no concern to me. There was understandably no news of the rumour in the media. But, the 135th press, living up to its low rating, sprung into action the minute there were rumours circulating about Yaw Shin Leong's affair.

As far as I am concerned, I would treat both issues in the same way. They are rumours and I don't really care about rumours. If there was truth in the allegations, again I don't care about the fact that a politician had an affair so long as he is able to discharge his functions. On that basis, there is no need for Yaw Shin Leong to resign or to be sacked by the party.

As we subscribe to the Westminister model of government, it might be useful to have reference to the constitutional conventions in UK with regard to personal misconduct. There is no specific convention relating to sexual misconduct by an individual MP. However, there is a convention pertaining to Ministerial Responsibility and there have been occasions involving ministerial resignation resulting from extra-marital affairs. Constitutional scholars in the UK are mostly of the view that a Minister's personal conduct involving sexual indiscretion does not trigger the convention of ministerial responsibility. The John Profumo scandal that led to the resignation of the minister involved an affair by the minister. However, the actual reason for which he resigned (and rightly so) was that he misled Parliament. It wasn't the affair. It was the lie.

However, there have been other ministers that have resigned as a result of being exposed as having an affair. These have been a result of public and Parliamenaty pressure rather than because of any Constitutional Convention. Quite apart from my own views that I do not expect my politicians to be saints, there is also no constitutional basis for insisting that a politician is answerable to the people for an affair that he had.

He has a lot of explaining to do to his wife and kids, of course. (And yes, kids. That is one good reason why I hate gossips about affairs. The more prevalent and public the gossip campaign, the more likely that the kids will come to know of it. It is not justifiable to expose young children to such 'news' of their parent. This is a matter that should be resolved within the family and if unresolvable, then I would expect the parties would end up in a divorce.)

Is the Worker's Party's move to expel YSL proper?

My initial view of the proper step to be taken by a political party is that an extra-marital affair should not be the basis on which the party member is expelled. I believe that the WP leaders must have initially taken that stance and concluded that it was not necessary for them to take any steps in relation to their MP? However, the very public witchhunt has pushed the hands of the Party to at first remove Yaw SL from his position in the Executive Committee and then to expell him.

The public explanation is that he has failed to give any adequate explanantion in relation to the alleged affair. This is one instance where the right to remain silent works completely against you. “No comment” is not the comment to make. The expectation that the party leaders would have had is that, at the very least, Yaw SL would give them an explanation. If it was indeed the case that Yaw SL did not explain himself to the WP, then the WP was entitled to take disciplinary action against him.

But, I wonder. Perhaps, it was a case of the WP leaders calculating that the fallout from the scandal could be too damaging for the party. Standing by a party member that had in fact committed adultery might sully the party's name. If more damning information were to emerge in public and it were to be clearly shown that YSL had an affair, then the political fallout for the WP could be too great. It is quite likely that sacking YSL was a form of damage control. It was probably an attempt to appear 'whiter than white.'

From a purely tactical standpoint, the WP move to sack YSL was probably the wisest thing that could have been done under the circumstances.

Did the Workers' Party let down its voters?

What can we say about the PAP? I didn't expect the rather opportunistic comments made by Mr Khaw Boon Wan. I kind of like the man. In a way, I didn't expect him to enter the fray. He claims that the WP may have misled the voters. PM Lee has gone further to say that WP has let the people down. How could that be? If a political party decided to climb the high moral ground, and demanded high standards from its MPs, it is something to be welcome.

The party has moved swiftly to assure Hougang residents. It has wasted no time in urging the PM to call for elections. It is imperative that a by-election be held so that the constitutents can have an MP representing them in Parliament. I remember the PAP conveniently avoided having by-elections in the past by an interpretation of the Constitution and the Parliamentary Elections Act in such a way that by-elections were unnecessary in a GRC when one seat became vacant. Creative? yes. Responsible? no.

I have no issues with the fact that having made the decision to demand an explanation from their MP, WP leaders being unsatisfied with his non-response had eventually taken the step to expel him. The most responsible thing to then do is to call for elections asap.

Having said all of that, I still stand by my original position that an extra marital affair is a non-issue. I am concerned about whether my MP can do his job. I am not concerned about whether he got himself a blow job.

A Humourous footnote

A rather funny by-product of the Yaw saga is the letter of demand from Mr Shanmugam's lawyers to the author of the Yawning Bread blog. They effectively demanded that a certain comment made by a 3rd party be deleted from the blog. They went on to demand that their letter be published in full. Alex Au (the blogger behind Yawning Bread) complied with both requests. The net effect of that is that the scandalous comments thrown in by some 'scroobal' has become the subject of further rumour mongering.Sometimes, the wisest thing to do is just walk away.

Three Tans and The TAN

Whatever I am going to say here is purely unscientific and is based on a gut feeling resulting from observing current debates about the Presidential elections.

From conversations with my friends and observing online chatter it is clear that all the usual anti-PAP crowd is anti-Tony Tan. I believe that there is no doubt that based on the GE 2011, the same 40% that voted for the opposition would not be voting for Tony Tan. But, the big question is whether they would all instinctively gravitate towards a single candidate. Tan Cheng Bock, Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian all have their merits and attractions for the anti-PAP voter.

What I find pretty clear as well is that a sizeable part of the 60% of PAP voters would not be voting for Tony Tan who is popularly perceived to be the PAP endorsed candidate. I know of friends and relatives that voted for the PAP in the GE for several reasons that would play no part in the presidential elections:
a) constituency level issues
b) fear of losing a PAP government
c) fear of losing credible Cabinet ministers
d) fear that they would lose out perks or promotions because they are in the civil service
e) fear that they will be 'marked' because they voted against PAP

I am sure that about 30% of voters would have been hardcore PAP supporters. These individuals would vote for the PAP endorsed candidate.
(I have always believed that the PAP has about 30% of hardcore supporters and there are about 25% to 30% hardcore opposition supporters. The remaining 40% to 45% of voters could be persuaded).

Nearly half of the voters that voted for PAP are likely to vote for someone other than Tony Tan. It is easy to assume that the person who benefits from this would be Dr Tan Cheng Bock given that he was a PAP MP and the PAP voter that decides not to vote for Tony Tan may not be inclined to vote for either Tan Jee Say or Tan Kin Lian.

The pro-opposition camp appears to me to be leaning towards Tan Jee Say. But, the 40% of opposition voters are not going to naturally veer towards Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian. Some of my friends have expressed their preference for Dr Tan Cheng Bock. Though he was a PAP MP in the past, he has enough of a track record in opposing the official policy position of his Party. If elected, we can expect him to be a President like Mr Ong Teng Chiong. Given this dynamics, I wouldn't be surprised if the 40% contribute a little to Dr Tan Cheng Bock's votes.

Dr Tan Cheng Bock might turn out to be the biggest beneficiary of a 4-cornered fight picking up votes from both the opposition as well as PAP voters. He also has the requisite personality to endear himself with the people.

Putting aside 30% of the votes for Tony Tan, the remaining 70% would probably be split amongst the Three Tans. There is a good chance that TCB can garner 35% of the votes with TJS and TKL picking up the balance 35% between the two of them.

If on nomination day all 4 Tans contest, Dr TCB stands the best chance of winning.

My own hope is that the Three Tans come to a consensus and two of them give way so that it would be a straight contest between TT and another Tan. The result would be clear. The next President would not be TT. But, with the three Tans going against TT, the split in the votes could be such that TT might get in by the narrowest margin by getting as little as 30% because the other three could get 25%, 25% and 20% That would be a result that most of us would not want. I hope it doesn't come to pass that way.

COE FOR THE PRESIDENT

The Presidential Election Committee must grant a Certificate of Eligibility to a candidate before he would be able to contest the Presidential Election.

So far we know that there are 3 serious contenders. Don't forget that there's a fourth chap who has collected the papers for submission, Mr Ooi Boon Ewe. He is likely to be rejected by the Committee (as he was when he applied to contest for the 2005 Presidential Election).

I wonder if the PEC will grant the COE to all the 3 Tans. I believe that there is little doubt that the hardcore PAP supporters will go for Dr Tony Tan. I suspect that the hardcore anti-PAP voter would go for Tan Kin Lian. Dr Tan Cheng Bock is inevitably the one that could be the vote splitter. Would he split the PAP supporters or the opposition supporters? It would be interesting to see.

Given the current political climate, I believe that if it was a straight fight between Dr Tony Tan and Tan Kin Lian or Dr Tony Tan and Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Dr Tony Tan would lose. If we take the general election result as a starting point, 60% voted for the PAP and 40% against. Whilst the 40% can be trusted to cast a vote against the PAP 'approved' candidate in the Presidential election, the same cannot be said about the 60% who voted for the PAP. Many amongst the 60% already showed unhappiness but were either unconvinced by the opposition, inspired by local constituency level issues, cowed by fear or swayed by last minute apologies. I believe that, in a Presidential Election, these voters would not hesitate to vote for the candidate that presents himself as 'non-white'. This would work to the advantage of the candidate racing against Dr Tony Tan.

If the COE is granted only to Dr Tony Tan and one other candidate, I strongly believe that the other candidate would win. If the 3 Tans get the COE, Dr Tan Cheng Bock would either split the pro-PAP or the pro-opposition voters.

Would the 3 Tans qualify for the COE?

Under the constitution the following criteria needs to be met (in addition to others that I feel is not really an issue for the 3 gentlemen):

The candidate must satisfy the Presidential Elections Committee that he is a person of integrity, good character and reputation.

For not less than 3 years, he must have been either a Minister, Chief Justice, Speaker of Parliament, Attorney-General, Chairman of the Public Service Commission, Auditor-General, Accountant-General or a Permanent Secretary;
or
Chairman or CEO of CPF Board, HDB, JTC or MAS;
or
Board Chairman or CEO of a company with paid-up capital of at least $100 million

If the candidate does not meet the requirement of 3 years' experience in those positions, he can still qualify if he occupied a similar position (based on seniority & experience) in any other organisation of equivalent size/complexity in the public or private sector. The criteria here is that the PEC must form the view that the candidate's position has given him experience in adminstering and managing financial affairs so as to enable him to discharge the President's functions effectively.


Given the background of the 3 gentlemen, I believe that the PEC ought to grant the COE to all three men unless the Committee for some reason decides to question or doubt one of them on the ground of integrity, good character or reputation. This, I believe is unlikely.

In all probability we are looking at a 3 horse race.

Dr Tony Tan: The 'approved' candidate?

Dr Tony Tan is contesting in the Presidential Elections. I'm sure the Committee will approve his candidature. He fits the criteria stipulated for the Presidential Elections.

I have reservations about Dr Tony Tan. He was amongst the Plaintiffs that sued Tang Liang Hong for defamation. He is currently the Chairman of Singapore Press Holdings. The combination of these two facts hardly qualifies him as a defender of free speech. He certainly is not and I am sure he would not pretend to be one.

Freedom of Expression is one of the pet issues that I have against the present government and certainly any Presidential candidate that does not share a value system based on free expression would not get my vote.

The Online Citizen has updated on their facebook wall the following: "you have to defend your name when slandered says dr tony tan in response to what he feels about using defamation suits to quell opposition"

It indicates to me that Dr Tony Tan is essentially the same establishment man that he has always been.

Another update from the TOC FB page: "One of the area I would like to concentrate on is to rally Singaporeans to alleviate the burden of the needy, disabled and disadvantaged" - Dr Tony Tan.

That is pretty much the way that the present government orientates itself. "rallying singaporeans to alleviate the burden of the needy" means Singaporeans have to help themselves through private self-help groups. Don't expect handouts. The same PAP mantra that we have heard all the time. When it comes to social assistance, they are true-blue free market economists. When it comes to social freedoms, they want to control and micromanage as much as they can.

From TOC FB update: "Dr Tony Tan: There is only one power centre in Singapore and that is the elected government of the day. The Elected President is not a rival power centre."

I do not disagree with Dr Tony Tan on this issue of the 'power centre', although I have blogged earlier about an enhanced vocal role for the President. However, the lingo that he has used is the same rehashed official phraseaology. This is just more evidence that Dr Tony Tan is the 'PAP endorsed' candidate for the upcoming elections unless Mr Nathan decides that he wants to go for re-election.

Another issue I have with Dr Tan's candidature is the fact that he was a Cabinet Minister at the time of the infamous Marxist Conspiracy detentions under Operation Spectrum back in 1987.

Certainly not the liberal Presidential Candidate that I am looking out for.

Black Sunday: A New Dawn?: A test for the post GE 2011 government

Under Section 5 of the Public Order Act 2009, a public assembly shall not take place unless notice of it has been given to the Commissioner under Section 6 and a permit has been granted under Section 7.

Effectively, any public assembly without a permit would constitute an offence.

So, what constitutes a public assembly? The Public Order Act 2009 makes the assembly of a single individual an offence. Although linguistically it seems impossible to evisage the assembly of one, the law can get away with the creation of fiction for convenience.

Section 1 of the Public Order Act spells out the definition of an 'assembly':

"assembly" means a gathering or meeting (whether or not comprising any lecture, talk, address, debate or discussion) of persons the purpose (or one of the purposes) of which is —
(a) to demonstrate support for or opposition to the views or actions of any person, group of persons or any government;
(b) to publicise a cause or campaign; or
(c) to mark or commemorate any event,
and includes a demonstration by a person alone for any such purpose referred to in paragraph (a), (b) or (c);

If a group of friends decide (let's say) to commemorate the death anniversary of JBJ by gathering at a public place, an offence would be committed. In fact, if I 'gathered' alone at a public place to commemorate an event, that would also constitute an assembly under the Act.

The definition is broad enough to cover any kind of 'protest', 'demonstration' or public display of views.

Into this restrictively drawn statutory arrangement waltzes 'Mandy Mary'.

I first came across this person via a facebook group. I was aware that 'she' was organising (or at least appeared via facebook to be a prime mover) the Black Sunday event. A successful Black Sunday event took place to register disapproval of MP Tin Pei Ling. This took place at the Starbucks outlet at Parkway Parade on 29th May 2011. I became aware of this event the day after it took place via some discussion with facebook friends. And then another Mandy Mary inspired Black Sunday event cropped up. This time it was at Wisma Atria at a Starbucks outlet on 12th June 2011.

By now, Mandy Mary had become emboldened enough to turn this into a 'movement'. There is a facebook page for 'Black Sunday Movement' now.

What do I think of these events? Do they fall foul of the law? Are the organizers and participants taking too much of a risk?

Two crucial issues:
1.Were they gathered for one of the stated purposes in the statute under the definition section of the Public Order Act as set out above?
2.Would a cafe constitute a public place for the purpose of the Public Order Act?

Under Section 1 of the Act 'public place' is defined as follows:

"public place" means —
(a) any place (open to the air or otherwise) to which members of the public have access as of right or by virtue of express or implied permission, whether or not on payment of a fee, whether or not access to the place may be restricted at particular times or for particular purposes, and whether or not it is an “approved place” within the meaning of the Public Entertainments and Meetings Act (Cap. 257); or
(b) a part of a place that the occupier of the place allows members of the public to enter, but only while the place is ordinarily open to members of the public;

This definition is broad enough to cover a restaurant or cafe where the owner of the premises grants an express/implied permission to the customer to have access to the premises.

With the Black Sunday Movement promoting a cause and the event being held in arguably 'a public place', (The Public Order Act definition is arguably broader than the reference to a 'public place' in the Public Entertainments and Meetings Act), I wouldn't be surprised if the authorities decide to charge the individuals involved.

But, I am surprised. Pleasantly as well.
I am surprised because no action has been taken. Nobody has been called up for investigation. Yes, some men in blue were seen at the location of the second event but apart from a photographer who was asked for his ID, nobody appears to have been troubled.

In my heart, I quietly hope and pray that this is the new dawn. Quietly, and without fanfare, freedom awakens in our land.

If our Prime Minister had truly taken to heart the voice of the people during the election campaign this year, he would have realised that the change that needs to be instituted is not going to be merely cosmetic. It would not do for him or his party to pay lip service to change. It would not do for him or his party to merely manage public perception through information management. He would have realised that the citizens of this country have reached a level of political maturity that demands that the tight-fisted approach of years gone by cannot work any more.

Politics in this country has changed at a fundamental level this May. The more you seek to control, the more you lose electoral control.

If this has dawned on our PM and his party colleagues, we might be witnessing the beginning of a new reality. Events like Black Sunday are pretty harmless. All they do is publicise a cause. No rebel-rousing speeches. No spirited chanting. Not even any placards. A silent and nuisance-free way of expressing dissent. I am sure the individuals composing the present Cabinet can live with this and tolerate its existence. After all, they are now living with and tolerating so much of dissent online. Whilst doing that, I am sure they are beginning to realise how harmless this kind of dissent really is.

The key for the PAP government is to battle dissent with clear, cogent and rational argument. They can't get away with killing dissent with a sledgehammer. Those days are gone. People have finally felt the sense of empowerment that their vote is capable of giving them. Silencing regular dissent would translate into more votes lost for the PAP. Engaging dissent constructively may in fact win back some votes for them. For the hardcore opposition supporter this might not sound like a good thing. In fact, one might even secretly wish that the PAP would not change its ways. If they don't change their ways, they would lose more votes.

But, PM Lee might have already made the prudent calculation that some level of restraint in the use of the law and a greater level of engagement in honest debate with the public would actually be the win-win solution for the PAP as well as for the people. More easing of control might actually result in more electoral clout for the PAP. This could be his opportunity to script a future for our country truly with the people as co-authors. Public assembly could be a start. There are so many other areas where control could be eased.

I am speculating. Who knows what the future holds?

But, these are interesting times in our nation's history.

The Black Sunday Movement could be the sign of a new dawn for us all.

Town Councils - conflict of interest?

A couple of interesting revelations have arisen after the general elections in Singapore this year. These are worth pursuing in the interest of transparency. In the end, I suspect that there may not be anything to be concerned about. But, prima facie, there appears to be a potential for conflict of interest in the management of some town councils.

I am not prepared to jump the gun and declare that there has been an obvious case of conflict. There are so many details that are missing that it is impossible to state with any degree of certainty whether conflict might exist.

Soon after the elections, information surfaced that the General Manager of Aljunied GRC was also the Managing Director of CPG Facilites Management Pte Ltd. This is the company that was awarded the town management contract at Aljunied Town Council. Now that Aljunied has fallen to the opposition Workers Party, there will be a handover of the Town Council management pretty soon.

In an article in the Straits Times on 12th May 2011 regarding the handover of the Aljunied Town Council, the following was stated:

“Aljunied Town Council is now managed by CPG Facilities Management, with whom the town council signed a three-year contract last year. CPG managing director Jeffrey Chua is the town council’s general manager. As the town council managing agent, CPG engages the services of other companies for services such as cleaning, maintenance and lift rescue.”

On the surface, the idea that the same person is the General Manager of the Town Council as well as the Managing Director of CPG appears to be a conflict of interest.

Not too long after this, there emerged news that an employee of Esmaco Pte Ltd working at Jurong Town Council had been sacked. There were allegations about her being sacked because of her election campaign activities when she was supporting the National Solidarity Party. This was denied by her employers. In the midst of this, it has turned out that Mr Ho Thian Poh is both the General Manager of the Jurong Town Council and the Managing Director of UGL Premas Ltd. Esmaco Pte Ltd, which is the managing agent of Jurong Town Council, is in fact a subsidiary UGL Premas Ltd.

So, we now have a situation where the GM position in two Town Councils has been occupied by individuals in a directorial capacity in the companies that have been awarded the contract to be managing agents.

I did a quick check on the names of all the General Managers or Secretaries in the various Town Councils. They are as follows. (I have also included the companies that are carrying out the estate management in these estates):

Aljunied Town Council Jeffrey CHUA Leong Chuan
CPG Facilities Management Pte Ltd.

Ang Mo Kio - Yio Chu Kang Town Council WAN Chong Hock
CPG Facilities Management Pte Ltd.

Bishan-Toa Payoh Town Council LING Ming Chuan

East Coast Town Council S Sasidharan NAIR
EM Services Pte Ltd

Holland-Bukit Panjang Town Council TENG Ann Boon, Albert
EM Services Pte Ltd

Hong Kah Town Council Ms Christina GOH
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Hougang Town Council Ms HOW Weng Fan

Jalan Besar Town Council LIM Kee Ee
EM Services Pte Ltd

Jurong Town Council HO Thian Poh
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Marine Parade Town Council Ms PNG Chiew Hoon
Esmaco Pte Ltd

Pasir Ris-Punggol Town Council Ms KWOK Wei Kin
EM Services Pte Ltd

Potong Pasir Town Council

Sembawang Town Council SOON Min Sin
EM Services Pte Ltd

Tampines Town Council LEONG Shee Wing
EM Services Pte Ltd

Tanjong Pagar Town Council Simon KOH Tee Chuan
EM Services Pte Ltd

West Coast Town Council TAY Eng Hwa
Esmaco Pte Ltd & EM Services Pte Ltd



http://apfm.org.sg/apfm/sub/members.html
The Association of Property and Facilities Managers lists Teng Ann Boon, Albert as being from EM Services Ltd. He is the General Manager at the Holland - Bukit Panjang Town Council.

A google search on Christina Goh throws up a ‘Linkedin’ profile with a past employment at UGL Premas. There is no way of verifying whether this is the same Christina Goh at Hong Kah Town Council.

The bottom line is that a simple search on the internet does not throw up any web of connections. More digging is needed to get to the bottom of this… if at all there is anything to be uncovered.

Assuming a person is a General Manager of a town council, is there necessarily a conflict of interest if he is also a director of the company that is appointed as a managing agent of the town council? Much will depend on the nature of the GM’s role. If the arrangement is that the town council awards the contract to a company like Esmaco and as part of that contract Esmaco appoints it employee or director to be the GM of the town council, then this arrangement would not on its own amount to a conflict. Presumably, the town council could still call the shots in terms of the contractual obligations of Esmaco and could still hold Esmaco accountable for any breach of service standards. The GM would effectively be an employee of Esmaco and he would be in charge of fulfilling Esmaco’s contractual obligations to the town council.

There would be an unpardonable conflict of interest if a person is at first appointed as a GM of the town council and then he is in charge of procuring the estate management contract and he proceeds to procure the services of Esmaco where he is a director or he is a director of Esmaco’s parent company. I doubt that this was the nature of the arrangement between the town council and Esmaco. It is more likely that Esmaco was appointed to manage the estate and the GM was appointed as Esmaco’s representative under the contract. He is probably under the payroll of Esmaco as well.

There are other issues that can potentially arise out of the way these town councils are managed. If the GM was involved in the process of awarding specific contracts for instance for tiling works or building covered walkways, how is the process managed in the town council. Does the town council leave Esmaco and its representative to decide on the contracts to be awarded and accordingly the pricing involved or does the town council exercise direct control over the process or at least some oversight. Given that estate management in PAP wards is being contracted out to private companies, the important question to be asked is the level of oversight that is being exercised over the way in which these companies operate.

If we look at the CPG Facilities Management website, we can see that as part of the township management services they perform, they carry out fund management and investment as well. http://www.cpgfm.com.sg/township.shtml

It is not clear whether all private companies carrying out estate management services in fact engage in investment on behalf of the town councils. If they do, this is another area to be concerned about in terms of the extent of oversight and control exercised by the town council itself.

But of course, if contrary to my conservative opinion, it turns out that there is something more to the position held by these GMs, then let the proverbial shit hit the fan.

Change: My wish list (non-exhaustive)

PAP is singing the tune of change... As for myself, I would love to see the following changes. But, I already suspect that none of these would transpire until more opposition voices enter Parliament. (or the PAP is voted out of power)

1. Abolish detention without trial
2. Repeal the mandatory death penalty
3. Repeal s.377A of the Penal Code
4. Amend laws that reverse the burden of proof and place the same on the defendant. (e.g. Misuse of Drugs Act)
5. relinquish control over the local media by repealing the Newspapers and Printing Presses Act
6. Politicians should cease to institute defamation suits
7. Lay bare the accounts of Temasek Holdings and GIC and specifically set out the salaries of office bearers
8. Reveal the details of our national reserve
9. reveal the per unit cost of construction of HDB flats
10. what component of CPF monies are invested by the state and what are the returns on the investment
11. Amend the Films Act to make it compliant with the Constitution
12. Amend the Public Order Act to allow for peaceful assemblies
13. Abolish the GRC system and revert back to the single member constituency system
14. move the elections department out of the PM’s Office and create an independent Electoral Commission to administer elections
15. Legally constrain the Boundary Committee to redraw electoral boundaries only for the purpose of reflecting demographic changes and restrict such changes to once every 15 years
16. Remove restrictions on the arts scene

Singapore GE 2011: 7 May

So, here we are. Parliament has been dissolved. Polling day is on May 7.
5 years on from the last elections, there is something in the air. The country is stirring in a way that is unusual. There is more coverage about the elections in the mainstream media. The MSM is not exactly neutral but it is definitely not taking as harsh a stance as it used to in relation to the opposition. There is still the indication of partiality in the way newspaper and television reports are slanted. PN Balaji noted recently that there seems to be a certain openness in the MSM. He used the term Orchid Evolution. It is kind of catchy. I wonder if it would catch on.

People seem restless. The number of people defending PAP fiercely seems to have dwindled. More people appear to express unhappiness. The single biggest grouse appears to be immigration. Ironically, whilst I am happy about the anti-PAP sentiment that seems to be growing I am not exactly thrilled about immigration as the reason for this backlash.

These foreigners who work amongst us and live amongst us are trying to make a living and to support their families either living back home or living here. The lax immigration policy can possibly be blamed for causing wages to be depressed. But, I hope that it is not an anti-foreigner mentality that is driving much of the anti-PAP sentiment. The last thing we need is an opportunistic xenophobic campaign by the opposition to be the basis of a serious assault on Parliamentary seats.

If we were to vote for candidates to have a broader representation in Parliament, so be it. If we were to vote for candidates to break PAP’s almost complete dominance of Parliament, so be it. If we were to vote for candidates because we believe that they propose better policies than the PAP, so be it. If we were to vote for candidates to pave the way eventually for a viable alternative government, so be it. But, to vote for opposition simply because of an anti-foreigner sentiment reeks of xenophobia and is all the more ridiculous in a nation made up almost entirely of the descendants of immigrants.

That said, I must admit that many of my friends and relatives seem genuinely excited at the chance to vote. For some it is the first time since the 1980s. For some it is the first time ever. But, with the growing chorus of anti-PAP sentiment and the interesting accumulation of talent by the opposition parties, I can’t help but feel that our expectations of an election upset is growing tremendously. I just hope that on the day after polling day we don’t come crashing down to the ground with a resoundingly disappointing outcome.

Singaporeans have complained before. Singaporeans have been vocal before. But, too often they have been cowed to submission by the irrational fear that their vote is not secret or the threat of losing material benefits in their housing estates.

Your vote is secret. Cast away that fear. Vote in the long term interest of the nation and set aside your narrow selfish interests and greed. The time seems right. Vote wisely.

Papmandering alert: SPH will brief Singaporeans on the right way to vote on the day before polling day. Every other person: Shut up and Sit Down!

The PAP is at it again: Papmandering - a form of gerrymandering unique to Singapore.

As I defined it in an earlier blog article: Papmandering: 'The art/science of redrawing electoral boundaries, electoral laws and/or the constitution for the purpose of maintaining overwhelming control of Parliament through the mechanics of clearly articulated arguments in favour of an inclusive form of democracy'.

The Prime Minister has chosen to announce, curiously from a faraway place, that a 'cooling off' day would be incorporated into the election process. This, it appears, is to prevent irrational voting. We the voters might be swayed by uplifting, exciting but misleading rhetoric and we might vote against the PAP erroneously. We the voters might be whipped into a frenzy of anger against the PAP and might commit the grave error of delivering a 'freak' election result.

Looks like the PAP has decided that the SPH in its infinite wisdom would be the sole source of information for us all. SPH would 'analyse' the campaign, 'summarise' the issues and present a profile/caricature of all the candidates in the elections. There will be no campaigning on the day before elections. But, will blogosphere remain silent?

The PM has left the Internet as a grey area for now. We would discover once the draft legislation is released. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that they may get so kiasu that they would prevent all unauthorised commentary on the elections either online or through other means. The other real possibility is that recognising that the internet does not possess a sufficient outreach to influence voters, they would take a hands-off approach to bloggers.

Any law that seeks to prevent commentary on elections (where such commentary is not pursuing a party objective but intended to be informative or insightful or even plainy supportive of a political party) would be undermining Article 14 of our Constitution, which provides for the Freedom of Speech. This freedom may be limited under the following circumstances:

Art 14(2) Parliament may by law impose —
(a) on the rights conferred by clause (1) (a), such restrictions as it considers necessary or expedient in the interest of the security of Singapore or any part thereof, friendly relations with other countries, public order or morality and restrictions designed to protect the privileges of Parliament or to provide against contempt of court, defamation or incitement to any offence;

It would be interesting to see the justification raised in parliament for such a limitation on free speech. The usual public order and security rant may not be viable. A clever argument could be constructed along the lines of 'the privileges of Parliament' vis a vis the electoral system and that might become the basis the restriction.

I don't know. I'm just speculating.

On the assumption that they do restrict online discussion on the day before polling day, the interesting question is: Will blogosphere remain silent?

Goodyear leaves: A bad year for PAP to call for elections?

Now that Chip Goodyear's tenure as CEO of Temasek is a non-starter, a great many questions would be flooding Singaporean minds about the non-answers provided in the official statements of Temasek.

Strategic differences? What were they? Why did they not surface earlier during the courting process? Why were they not noticed by the astute custodians of Temasek? Perhaps, the differences involved some corporate governance issues? Perhaps they involved issues of transparency? We will never know.

But, in politics, speculations are just as bad as damaging revelations. How would the average Singaporean voter react to Goodyear's departure and the return of Ho Ching? Given the losses churned out by Temasek and the complete silence on the accountability front, it is tempting to assume that the latest news of Goodyear's departure would broaden discontent amongst the electorate. I am not so sure.

One type of Singaporean is a hardcore oppositionist. Everything negative involving the powers that be is reflective of PAP's failure. Temasek, headed by the PM's wife, having its portfolio decimated by the meltdown in the financial system is just another ammunition to hurl at the PAP; just another issue to hate the PAP for.

Then there is the hardcore PAP supporter. This this type of voter the PAP can do no wrong. Official explanations are the gospel. There is nothing fishy about even the fishiest explanation provided by any person or body remotely associated with the state. The person inhabiting this fairy tale la la land is not going to be moved by the Temasek saga at all. To this person Temasek did not lose $58 billion but made a gain of $56 billion from 2003.

There are voters who would normally vote for the PAP who either don't like the PAP's style of government (but don't hate them) or are not too interested one way or another about politics. The question is whether this grouo of voters would be swayed by the Temasek winds. My guess is that they would not.

Temasek is investing peoples' money. The $58 billion can be seen as gambling away the electorate's fund. But, the hard fact is that the retrenched Singaporean worker or the recession hit small business ownwer or any other Singaporean making ends meet or failing to do so does not see the relationship between Temasek and the food at his own dinner table. If that link is not drawn, Temasek would not be an emotional spark. Temasek to many a voter would be a side show. A useful distraction. A piece of entertainment for us to mock the powers that be. Beyond that, Temasek's debacle would be of no significance.

There are some narratives firmly engraved onto the consciousness of the average Singaporean that it would take more than a shaky Temasek to cause the electoral winds to change course. As office talk and coffee shop talk would have it, Temasek is a joke. It is not yet a source of anger.

Is it a bad year for PAP to call for elections? No.

Uniquely Singapore: Papmandering

Papmandering: 'The art/science of redrawing electoral boundaries, electoral laws and/or the constitution for the purpose of maintaining overwhelming control of Parliament through the mechanics of clearly articulated arguments in favour of an inclusive form of democracy'

We are familiar with the concept of gerrymandering. It is the process by which electoral boundaries are redrawn to produce a distinct advantage for a candidate. Gerrymandering is possible in a first-past-the-post system whereby voting districts that appear to strongly favour an incumbent can be made to swallow up adjacent voting districts that appear to support opposition candidates.

In most countries employing the first past the post system, the principle governing redistricting or redrawing of constituency boundaries is based on the idea of equal representation for voters. Absolute equality in representation is impossible to achieve. However, boundary commissions/committees attempt to find approximate equality in terms of the MP to voter ratio. Considering that the key reason for boundary changes is to take into account demographic changes either due to migration of voters between constituencies or due to voters reaching the age of majority for voting, one finds it unethical that boundary changes could be used to ensure that an incumbent obtains the right number of votes to secure an election victory.

The word gerrymander itself is a combination of Gerry and Salamander. Governor Elbridge Gerry of Massachusets (USA) redistricted his state in 1812 to benefit his party. In particular, a district in Essex County resembled a Salamander because of the artificial redrawing of boundaries. The editor of the Boston Gazette referred to it as ‘gerrymander’ and the name entered the English lexicon through repeated usage.

The beauty of gerrymandering is that nobody can really prove that the redistricting was a purely political exercise as opposed to the legitimate exercise of ensuring equality in voter representation. In Singapore, many observers view boundary changes cynically even though, to be fair, the voter to MP ratio has been kept reasonably proportionate. Based on current practice, district population deviation is kept to a limit of 30%.

Notable amongst electoral regions that fell prey to redistricting would be Eunos GRC. In the 1997 elections, Eunos GRC was eliminated from the map and its residents were split up into neighbouring districts. In the previous elections, Eunos was hotly contested and the PAP team beat the WP team by 45,833 votes to 41,673 votes. In the 1997 elections, it was Cheng San GRC that was hotly contested and although not quite near the close battle of Eunos GRC, the WP managed to obtain approximately 45% of the votes cast. Cheng San GRC did not feature in the 2001 elections.

I don’t propose a detailed study of boundary changes undertaken in Singapore. There are other studies on this phenomenon. What is fascinating about ‘goal post changing’ in Singapore is not gerrymandering. Obviously, it is a practice that is inevitable and at the same time impossible to prove in the first past the post systems around the world. The fascinating twist in Singapore is the use of the following devices:
a) NCMP
b) NMP
c) GRC

In my opinion, the PAP’s strategy in relation to the trend in the 1980s of increasing opposition support was to provide dissenting voices a platform in Parliament. The PAP rightly sized up the general mood of the public as one that did not seek a change in the status quo overnight. There were hardcore opposition supporters. There were the PAP loyalists. There were those who felt intimidated by the perceived lack of secrecy of the ballot and would therefore vote for the PAP. There were then the voters who occupied the middle ground. These voters have existed in the 1980s and I suspect that they continue to exist. This segment of the population can be persuaded to vote for the opposition. They see the merit of a continuation of the PAP government but have thirsted and still do thirst for a greater diversity of views and voices in Parliament. Psychologically, the ability to vent one’s frustration in the public sphere is a necessity in any society. It is a case of letting off steam.

I suspect that the PAP assessed that by providing a platform for opposition voices in Parliament without allowing these opposition members from becoming fully empowered members of the Parliament they would be able to release some of the pressure that was building up in the 1980s. The Non Constituency MP scheme was a device to permit losing opposition candidates an opportunity to speak in Parliament. By doing this, PAP could tell the people: Look. You wanted us to form the government and you wanted opposition voices in Parliament. We have changed our electoral laws to allow you to continue to vote PAP MPs into Parliament and at the same time have your wish of hearing opposition voices in Parliament.

In the same vein of airing diverse views and in order to prevent public disquiet, the PAP tinkered with Parliamentary composition by introducing the Nominated MP scheme. This time, non partisan individuals could be introduced into Parliament and they could raise the quality of the debate through their knowledge in their respective fields. The PAP would have seen that this would be a way of assuring the public that a multiplicity of views can and will be aired in Parliament. Besides, the PAP might have hoped that the NMPs would appear to be of a ‘better’ calibre than the opposition MPs thereby diminishing the need for people to vote for the opposition.

I see the current proposal of increasing the number of NCMPs to be the latest in this line of tinkering with Parliamentary composition. Given the noticeable social activism in Singapore over the last few years, the PAP must have realised that they risk the possibility of losing a few more seats to the opposition in the next elections. One pre-emptive strategy would be to assure the people that more opposition MPs will get to sit in Parliament through the NCMP scheme. Indirectly, they are telling the electorate again that you don’t have to vote in an opposition MP for your constituency. All you need to do is to continue to have your PAP MPs and as a bonus you will get an increased number of opposition MPs in Parliament. These guys can bark. But they can’t bite.

From a strategic standpoint, PAP would have calculated that the hardcore opposition supporters would continue to vote for the opposition. But the segment of the population that thirsts for a voice can be persuaded to vote for the PAP candidates as they would be assured that there will be a minimum number of opposition candidates who will end up in Parliament even though they lost.

Part of the process of Papmandering therefore involves tweaking Parliamentary composition through amendments to the electoral law as well as to the Constitution. The other part of the process is to magnify the distortion normally produced by the first past the post system. In the first past the post system, it is possible for a party to gain a disproportionately high percentage of seats in Parliament when compared to the popular vote. For instance, a party can get 65% of the popular vote and still manage 80% of the seats in Parliament. In the United Kingdom for instance, every post WWII government with a Parliamentary majority has failed to obtain more than 45% of the popular vote.

Given the lack of proportionality that is inherent in the system, layering the GRC over it helps to aggravate the disproportionality. With the introduction of the GRC system, it is possible that some MPs that may have lost their individual seats are rescued by stronger candidates in other constituencies. The practice of having a Minister head a GRC team places an apprehension in the minds of voters that if the team loses, the Minister would no longer be able to serve in his office. Weak candidates within the GRC would benefit from the presence of a Minister on their team.

Let us take the Eunos GRC example. In the 1988 elections, Eunos GRC was a 3 member ward. The votes in favour of PAP – 36,500. The votes in favour of WP – 35,221. If the 3 constituencies that were a part of the GRC were single member constituencies in that elections, it is highly likely that at least one of the PAP candidates would have lost his seat. It is likely that Francis Seow would have won a seat in his constituency. In fact, with a vote difference of 1,279 votes, I would not be surprised if 2 PAP MPs had in fact lost to the opposition in the Eunos GRC(if only the Elections Department were to release the detailed results).

The same analysis can be applied to the Eunos GRC of the 1991 elections. This time around it was composed of 4 constituencies. PAP obtained 45,833 votes as opposed to 41,673 for the WP. With a vote difference of 4,160, again it is likely that at least one of the PAP candidates would have lost the seat in a conventional single member seat.

Through the GRC system, the PAP has managed to keep some of its MPs in Parliament where they would otherwise have found it tough going in a single member constituency. The growth in the size and number of GRCs was accompanied by the disappearance of most of the single member constituencies. This is another unique form of electoral management that has ensured the PAP’s continued super-majority in Parliament.

To accomplish this feat, the PAP has utilised not only electoral boundary changes but also changes to the electoral law and the Constitution. At every step of the way, the PAP has utilised innovative arguments to substantiate the need for such changes (the need for guaranteed minority representation being one). Many of us are cynical in the way that we view the reasons. But, there are many amongst the electorate who are convinced by the stated reasons.

This process of electoral management is uniquely Singapore and uniquely PAP. It warrants being called Papmandering. Of course, the point to remember is that none of this is unlawful or illegal or unconstitutional.