I must say that Low Thia Khiang is really good with his imagery. His driving analogy started sheepishly by likening the opposition to a spare tyre. But, the truth is that in political terms an opposition should not merely be a spare tyre. I would characterise the parts of the vehicle as procedural safeguards in the system of governance.
Shanmugam was quick to pick up on the analogy and pointed out that in fact what the opposition wants to do is to become the co-driver. But, the analogy came unstuck. He suggested that the co-driver would tussle for the wheel. Wouldn’t that be unsafe for both the driver and the co-driver? Why would the opposition want the country to crash? That would be suicidal.
So, Low Thia Khiang’s rebuttal at last night’s rally using the same analogy was simply brilliant and to really add sting to it he threw in a slap.
"Bear in mind that just putting on a safety belt and hope that the driver will drive you to your destination is not enough. A co-driver is essential, especially as road gets tougher to navigate. The co-driver is there to slap the driver when he drives off course or when he falls asleep or drives dangerously," said Low Thia Khiang reminding us that we are all in the car together.
As the analogy has progressed from a spare tyre to a co-driver, I find that correspondingly more and more people that I speak to are not merely unhappy with the PAP. Many are willing to put their votes where their mouths are. Come the 7th of May 2011, the PAP could be in for a rude shock.
Could the co-driver become the driver? Wishful thinking.
Showing posts with label low thia khiang. Show all posts
Showing posts with label low thia khiang. Show all posts
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Low in Aljunied: Masterstroke or Fatal Mistake?
Low Thia Khiang, looking like a brilliant general, gave a press conference after filing his nomination papers at Aljunied GRC. Nobody expected him to venture out of Hougang SMC. That’s his fortress. That’s where he has built up loyal support. His decision to cross over to Aljunied GRC has caught everyone by surprise.
This decision could turn out to be his masterstroke in what many of us are expecting to be a watershed election for the opposition in Singapore. If we assume Potong Pasir to be a safe zone and Hougang to similarly be a safe zone for the opposition, this huge gamble by him to cross over into Aljunied could finally win a GRC for the opposition. That would be 4 seats from Aljunied for a minimum of 6 opposition MPs in Parliament. It would inflict a major defeat on the PAP even though, to be honest, it in no way breaks PAP’s overwhelming control of Parliament. We would perceive this to be a major defeat because losing that GRC would involve the loss of two Cabinet Ministers. In the words of Low Thia Khiang, it would teach the PAP a lesson.
But, everything could go awfully wrong for the opposition. Chiam See Tong did not do particularly well in the last election at Potong Pasir. The margin of victory is one that the PAP could easily overhaul if Potong Pasir residents don’t view Mrs Chiam to be as dependable as her husband. Similarly, if the Hougang voters were more captured by Mr Low’s charisma than the Workers’ Party’s agenda, then Hougang could be lost too.
Aljuneid GRC was the most closely fought battleground in the last election in 2006. In its previous incarnations as Eunos GRC and Cheng San GRC, that part of Singapore has been a breeding ground for strong opposition support but always falling short. At every election, the boundaries have been redrawn for that region and any serious assault by the opposition has been neutralized. The closest outcome was 49.11% for the WP in the 1988 election when it was Eunos GRC. In the last election, the WP obtained 43.91% of the valid votes cast.
Based on the boundaries as redrawn for this election it is clear that 7 precincts have been moved out from Aljuneid to Ang Mo Kio GRC. These could have been areas with large opposition support. 6 precincts from Marine Parade GRC have been moved into Aljuneid GRC. This could neutralize opposition support. In the end, it could be a close fight and the WP could end up losing.
Such a scenario is not improbable and our Parliament might go back to where it was 30 years ago when all seats were occupied by the PAP before JBJ broke into Parliament in the 1981 Anson by-election. That is the doomsday scenario for the opposition. But, it is a scenario that does not bode well for the future of our country. It is extremely unhealthy for so much of pent up frustration to exist on the street and have no voice in Parliament. (And for God’s sake, NCMPs don’t count as a voice when they lack the powers of an elected MP.) It is quite likely that there would be a sizeable swing against the PAP of anywhere between 5% to 7% of the popular vote. Such a swing could translate into 40% of the popular vote in the country to the opposition. That, arguably would be 40% of the citizen population being disenfranchised.
The Workers’ Party gamble could go awfully wrong for the opposition as a whole. Although I hear a great deal of chatter online and on the ground that appears to express dissatisfaction, I do not think that we are going to see a massive swing in the popular vote of about 10% to 15%. Based on the previous election in 2006, the opposition only managed to get about 30% to 35% in most of the constituencies. They had a good showing in Aljunied. But, that was it. So, barring a huge electoral swing, one would not imagine the opposition scoring a win in any other GRC. Perhaps the single member constituencies could throw up some new opposition members. Perhaps not.
That’s my nightmare scenario. Let’s try the slightly more probable outcome.
Due to prevalent voter dissatisfaction, there is a 5% to 7% swing in the overall popular vote. Potong PAsir and Hougang remain with the opposition. Aljunied falls to the WP. Another 2 or 3 SMCs fall to the opposition. Likely candidates for that: Yuhua SMC, Whampoa SMC and Mounbatten SMC. So, there could be 10 opposition MPs in Parliament.
The best case scenario for the opposition would be that they capture Choa Chu Kang GRC, West Coast GRC, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Aljunied GRC, Tampines GRC, Holland-Bukit Timah… That would be 29 seats from GRCs alone. To me, that would be the ideal result to get a sudden leap into a first world parliament. That number would prevent unilateral constitutional amendments.
Well… Let’s see how things unfold. There are plenty of first time voters and plenty of young voters. This election is not going to be easy to predict.
This decision could turn out to be his masterstroke in what many of us are expecting to be a watershed election for the opposition in Singapore. If we assume Potong Pasir to be a safe zone and Hougang to similarly be a safe zone for the opposition, this huge gamble by him to cross over into Aljunied could finally win a GRC for the opposition. That would be 4 seats from Aljunied for a minimum of 6 opposition MPs in Parliament. It would inflict a major defeat on the PAP even though, to be honest, it in no way breaks PAP’s overwhelming control of Parliament. We would perceive this to be a major defeat because losing that GRC would involve the loss of two Cabinet Ministers. In the words of Low Thia Khiang, it would teach the PAP a lesson.
But, everything could go awfully wrong for the opposition. Chiam See Tong did not do particularly well in the last election at Potong Pasir. The margin of victory is one that the PAP could easily overhaul if Potong Pasir residents don’t view Mrs Chiam to be as dependable as her husband. Similarly, if the Hougang voters were more captured by Mr Low’s charisma than the Workers’ Party’s agenda, then Hougang could be lost too.
Aljuneid GRC was the most closely fought battleground in the last election in 2006. In its previous incarnations as Eunos GRC and Cheng San GRC, that part of Singapore has been a breeding ground for strong opposition support but always falling short. At every election, the boundaries have been redrawn for that region and any serious assault by the opposition has been neutralized. The closest outcome was 49.11% for the WP in the 1988 election when it was Eunos GRC. In the last election, the WP obtained 43.91% of the valid votes cast.
Based on the boundaries as redrawn for this election it is clear that 7 precincts have been moved out from Aljuneid to Ang Mo Kio GRC. These could have been areas with large opposition support. 6 precincts from Marine Parade GRC have been moved into Aljuneid GRC. This could neutralize opposition support. In the end, it could be a close fight and the WP could end up losing.
Such a scenario is not improbable and our Parliament might go back to where it was 30 years ago when all seats were occupied by the PAP before JBJ broke into Parliament in the 1981 Anson by-election. That is the doomsday scenario for the opposition. But, it is a scenario that does not bode well for the future of our country. It is extremely unhealthy for so much of pent up frustration to exist on the street and have no voice in Parliament. (And for God’s sake, NCMPs don’t count as a voice when they lack the powers of an elected MP.) It is quite likely that there would be a sizeable swing against the PAP of anywhere between 5% to 7% of the popular vote. Such a swing could translate into 40% of the popular vote in the country to the opposition. That, arguably would be 40% of the citizen population being disenfranchised.
The Workers’ Party gamble could go awfully wrong for the opposition as a whole. Although I hear a great deal of chatter online and on the ground that appears to express dissatisfaction, I do not think that we are going to see a massive swing in the popular vote of about 10% to 15%. Based on the previous election in 2006, the opposition only managed to get about 30% to 35% in most of the constituencies. They had a good showing in Aljunied. But, that was it. So, barring a huge electoral swing, one would not imagine the opposition scoring a win in any other GRC. Perhaps the single member constituencies could throw up some new opposition members. Perhaps not.
That’s my nightmare scenario. Let’s try the slightly more probable outcome.
Due to prevalent voter dissatisfaction, there is a 5% to 7% swing in the overall popular vote. Potong PAsir and Hougang remain with the opposition. Aljunied falls to the WP. Another 2 or 3 SMCs fall to the opposition. Likely candidates for that: Yuhua SMC, Whampoa SMC and Mounbatten SMC. So, there could be 10 opposition MPs in Parliament.
The best case scenario for the opposition would be that they capture Choa Chu Kang GRC, West Coast GRC, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Aljunied GRC, Tampines GRC, Holland-Bukit Timah… That would be 29 seats from GRCs alone. To me, that would be the ideal result to get a sudden leap into a first world parliament. That number would prevent unilateral constitutional amendments.
Well… Let’s see how things unfold. There are plenty of first time voters and plenty of young voters. This election is not going to be easy to predict.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
A sizeable opposition now is an insurance policy for the future
An English friend of mine once remarked that there is a close link between the free market economy and the free marketplace of ideas. Just as the former is reliant on the unfettered exchange of goods and services and the natural forces of competition so is the latter reliant on competing viewpoints seeking attention and acceptance with the most rational or the most socially relevant (given the particular age and location) being pushed to the fore.
It is a case of survival of the fittest idea.
The quality of debate hasn't been stellar in Singapore (with the exception of signs of intelligence emerging via blogosphere). Insofar as Parliament is concerned, MPs haven't been accustomed to vigourous debate and I guess the sedate Parliamentary air can seep into the cells through some kind of osmosis and affect the logical faculties.
The Worker's Party leader Low Thia Khiang, made on Monday what I thought was a rather uncontroversial and straightforward observation about the need for greater opposition presence in Parliament to act as a check and balance on the PAP-led government. He was making the point that people would have no recourse if the ruling party were to abuse its power, trample on people's rights and become corrupt.
In response to Mr Low's assertion PAP MPs are reported to have raised some arguments. From Channelnewsasia:
Ms Rajah's assertion (that when the PAP government does become corrupt in the future, the people of Singapore are at liberty to vote out the PAP) is rather surprising. Let us assume that we have the same power balance in Parliament in about 20 years time. Let us assume that there emerges clear evidence of corruption amongst a number of Cabinet Ministers of that future date. The people of Singapore decide to vote the PAP out of power. But, guess what. The opposition parties are weak and crippled by political impediments that currently exist and presumably would continue to exist at that later date. They are unable to field enough candidates and on nomination day the PAP gets a majority. Alternatively, the opposition parties manage to cobble together enough candidates and manage to deny PAP its majority and a coalition of opposition parties comes to power after the election. From a mere 2 MPs in Parliament, the coalition of opposition parties suddenly has let's say 50 MPs. These fresh Parliamentary faces would now have to figure out governance of the nation from scratch.
The problem with Ms Rajah's argument is that she expects to have a change in government the minute the PAP is corrupt. The presence of a sufficiently viable opposition in Parliament is so that if the existing government should become corrupt, the people have the choice of turning to an alternative that is waiting the wings and is ready and competent to govern. It is an insurance policy for the citizenry.
The reason why democratic elections present a better alternative to autocratic systems is because they allow citizens the opportunity to alter the persons exercising authority when the need arises through a stable process instead of causing a shock to the system. If a country had no elections to begin with, the only way that the citizens could alter the corrupt leadership is by popular revolution and other such drastic means. In a country that has an electoral process, the people are afforded the opportunity to replace their leaders peacefully and without placing undue stresses on the machinery of government. But, merely having the right to vote out the leaders is not going to ensure that there is no shock to the system. A key component of a viable and mature democracy is the presence of a competent and sizeable opposition in Parliament: an alternative that is waiting in the wings; one that can not only deliver peaceful change in leadership but can also govern from Day 1 (instead of coming in suddenly like a revolutionary government with popular backing but little experience and hence still constituting a shock to the system)
Ultimately, it is about having a system in place that will ensure peaceful and smooth transitions inspite of the individuals that pass through the halls of power. If citizens are to refrain from having any opposition in Parliament until something goes wrong with the PAP government, then it would be too late to attempt a complete overhaul. Such an attempt at overhaul would be equivalent to producing a revolutionary government with all the attendant potential problem that an inexperienced leadership could bring.
If in the next few elections, the opposition gets a foothold in Parliament, then in the long run they would be able to present that viable alternative to that hypothetically corrupt PAP 20 years down the road.
There is one other point to the presence of a visible and viable opposition. On the assumption that the ruling party becomes corrupt, who is to raise the issue in Parliament? Who is to exercise independant oversight? Of course, I can imagine that the retort would be that 1 opposition MP is sufficient for this purpose. Now that the PM has announced that there would be 9 opposition MPs (elected MPs and NCMPs), one could argue that these 9 could act as a check. The problem with this is that a small group of MPs would be ineffective in exposing corruption compared to a critical mass of opposition MPs.
Above all, a truly virulent Parliament that acts as the voice of the people is only possible through the diversity of views, ideas and arguments presented in public and debated vigourously. The weaker arguments will be exposed for the people to see and the more cogent ideas will come to the fore.
James Madison in the Federalist Papers once warned that when giving out political power we must bear in mind that 'enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm'.
It is a case of survival of the fittest idea.
The quality of debate hasn't been stellar in Singapore (with the exception of signs of intelligence emerging via blogosphere). Insofar as Parliament is concerned, MPs haven't been accustomed to vigourous debate and I guess the sedate Parliamentary air can seep into the cells through some kind of osmosis and affect the logical faculties.
The Worker's Party leader Low Thia Khiang, made on Monday what I thought was a rather uncontroversial and straightforward observation about the need for greater opposition presence in Parliament to act as a check and balance on the PAP-led government. He was making the point that people would have no recourse if the ruling party were to abuse its power, trample on people's rights and become corrupt.
In response to Mr Low's assertion PAP MPs are reported to have raised some arguments. From Channelnewsasia:
"Indranee Rajah, Deputy Speaker and MP for Tanjong Pagar GRC, replied that the citizens of Singapore have the right to vote against the PAP, and said Mr Low's suggestion is unsound.
She said: "If that day ever comes, then the people are at liberty to vote out the PAP government and should do so in that situation.
"The premise of Mr Low's suggestion is flawed. He's really saying just in case PAP becomes corrupt in the future, then people had better vote for the opposition now.
"But if you apply the same logic, then the argument can also be made that if you vote in the opposition, then they may become corrupt in the future, so in order to avoid that, you might as well vote for PAP now." "
Ms Rajah's assertion (that when the PAP government does become corrupt in the future, the people of Singapore are at liberty to vote out the PAP) is rather surprising. Let us assume that we have the same power balance in Parliament in about 20 years time. Let us assume that there emerges clear evidence of corruption amongst a number of Cabinet Ministers of that future date. The people of Singapore decide to vote the PAP out of power. But, guess what. The opposition parties are weak and crippled by political impediments that currently exist and presumably would continue to exist at that later date. They are unable to field enough candidates and on nomination day the PAP gets a majority. Alternatively, the opposition parties manage to cobble together enough candidates and manage to deny PAP its majority and a coalition of opposition parties comes to power after the election. From a mere 2 MPs in Parliament, the coalition of opposition parties suddenly has let's say 50 MPs. These fresh Parliamentary faces would now have to figure out governance of the nation from scratch.
The problem with Ms Rajah's argument is that she expects to have a change in government the minute the PAP is corrupt. The presence of a sufficiently viable opposition in Parliament is so that if the existing government should become corrupt, the people have the choice of turning to an alternative that is waiting the wings and is ready and competent to govern. It is an insurance policy for the citizenry.
The reason why democratic elections present a better alternative to autocratic systems is because they allow citizens the opportunity to alter the persons exercising authority when the need arises through a stable process instead of causing a shock to the system. If a country had no elections to begin with, the only way that the citizens could alter the corrupt leadership is by popular revolution and other such drastic means. In a country that has an electoral process, the people are afforded the opportunity to replace their leaders peacefully and without placing undue stresses on the machinery of government. But, merely having the right to vote out the leaders is not going to ensure that there is no shock to the system. A key component of a viable and mature democracy is the presence of a competent and sizeable opposition in Parliament: an alternative that is waiting in the wings; one that can not only deliver peaceful change in leadership but can also govern from Day 1 (instead of coming in suddenly like a revolutionary government with popular backing but little experience and hence still constituting a shock to the system)
Ultimately, it is about having a system in place that will ensure peaceful and smooth transitions inspite of the individuals that pass through the halls of power. If citizens are to refrain from having any opposition in Parliament until something goes wrong with the PAP government, then it would be too late to attempt a complete overhaul. Such an attempt at overhaul would be equivalent to producing a revolutionary government with all the attendant potential problem that an inexperienced leadership could bring.
If in the next few elections, the opposition gets a foothold in Parliament, then in the long run they would be able to present that viable alternative to that hypothetically corrupt PAP 20 years down the road.
There is one other point to the presence of a visible and viable opposition. On the assumption that the ruling party becomes corrupt, who is to raise the issue in Parliament? Who is to exercise independant oversight? Of course, I can imagine that the retort would be that 1 opposition MP is sufficient for this purpose. Now that the PM has announced that there would be 9 opposition MPs (elected MPs and NCMPs), one could argue that these 9 could act as a check. The problem with this is that a small group of MPs would be ineffective in exposing corruption compared to a critical mass of opposition MPs.
Above all, a truly virulent Parliament that acts as the voice of the people is only possible through the diversity of views, ideas and arguments presented in public and debated vigourously. The weaker arguments will be exposed for the people to see and the more cogent ideas will come to the fore.
James Madison in the Federalist Papers once warned that when giving out political power we must bear in mind that 'enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm'.
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