Let me first declare that I am a Son of Bukit Ho Swee (or maybe Son of Kandang Kerbau), whatever relevance that might have to my credibility, credentials or character. http://www.todayonline.com/Hotnews/EDC130110-0000082/PAP-unveils-son-of-Punggol-Koh-as-Punggol-East-by-election-candidate
The Prime Minister has decided to call for a by-election at Punggol East and I think instead of criticising him, we should all welcome this move. Given the fact that in the Mdm Vellamma case (Hougang by-election) the High Court has ruled that it is the PM's absolute discretion to decide on whether to call for a by-election, it is heartening that the PM is exercising his discretion in a fair manner by calling for a by-election early on. (I disagree with the legal reasoning in the Hougang by-election case. My analysis is set out here: http://www.article14.blogspot.sg/2012/12/the-hougang-by-election-case-belated.html)
I have read some nasty comments online about how this decision by the PM is a sudden move. So what if it is sudden? It would have been sudden anyway if it happened after Chinese New Year or after the budget debate or for that matter if it happened later in the year. In fact, the earlier that the vacancy is filled, the better. I am glad that it only took the PM 3 weeks to make a decisive move on this one.
So, whilst we are quick to criticise when there is a flaw, let's be quick to give the man a pat on the back when he does the right thing.
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AN OPPOSITION WIN IN PUNGGOL EAST?
On the assumption that it is a straight fight between PAP and WP.
The first observation that must be made is that if this was a General Election, there would be very little movement of votes away from the PAP to the WP. A 5% swing in less than 2 years would be difficult to accomplish. One could safely bet that Punggol East would remain with the PAP.
This is a by-election and we have to consider one important factor that often influences a not-too-insignificant proportion of the Singaporean electorate. Nationwide, I would guess that about 20% to 25% of voters belong to a category that is unhappy with the current government's policies and yet wouldn't want the PAP government to be replaced. Note that in the Presidential Election (PE) in 2011 barely a few months after the General Elections (GE), only 35% voted for the PAP 'endorsed' candidate. 25% of the electorate had switched from voting for PAP in the GE to voting for an alternative candidate in the PE. Given the fact that the issue of whether the PAP would form the government was not at stake, many voters chose an alternative candidate in the PE.
Would the entire 25% be a potential vote bank for the opposition parties? I don't think so. During the PE, one attraction away from the PAP endorsed candidate was the existence of an ex-PAP MP (a highly likeable doctor and one that has the reputation of playing the role of an opposing voice within the ruling party) in the form of Dr Tan Cheng Bock. I do not think that all of the 25% would have been persuaded by an outright opposition candidate. Perhaps, we could take it that between a third to half of these voters would be open to voting for a credible opposition candidate if they were sure that PAP's rule was not going to be terminated.
These voters would be prepared to vote in an opposition candidate to voice their concerns without the potential 'threat' that PAP would go out of power. This is the potential voter base that can be persuaded to vote for the opposition in a by-election. By working on the assumption that the nationwide voter behaviour is more or less similar, we can conservatively estimate this category of voters to be about 10% in Punggol East (making allowance for potential variation from the norm in that ward.) There is, to my mind, a realistic possibility of a more than 5% swing against the PAP. If the issues are pitched in the right way and if recent failures are highlighted appropriately and frequently, there are enough votes up for grabs in Punggol East to turn the seat 'blue'.
In a previous blog post, I estimated a vote swing of about 2% to 3% without factoring in the by-election effect. I am revising this now after taking into account the above factors. http://article14.blogspot.sg/2012/12/by-election-in-punggol-east.html
On the assumption that it is a multi-cornered fight
There will be an inevitable split of the opposition vote. Voters do not disuss amongst themselves, collaborate or guide each other in voting. Whatever opposition votes that may be up for grabs would inevitably be split. This is where the PAP probably stands to gain.
Firstly, opposition disunity may put off some of the potentially persuadable voters. If we work on the assumption of 10% being persuadable, there is bound to be a significant proportion of those voters being put off by a multi-cornered battle in the constituency. On the assumption that half of them swing over to the opposition, it is still difficult to predict whether they would all head in the direction of the same opposition party.
The two strongest contenders would be WP and SDP. Each have their relative merits and, of course, much will depend on the candidates that they field. (WP has arguably a better branding and SDP has more charismatic and vocal candidates.) Out of a potential 51% that might vote for the opposition in the by-election, there is bound to be a split in the votes. That would hand the seat back to the PAP. If there is an overall swing of 10% to the opposition, a split in the opposition vote may narrowly hand the seat to an opposition candidate. This candidate is more likely to be the WP candidate. The result could be 46% for WP, 9% for SDP (and others) and 45% for PAP.
A three-conered or multi-cornered fight could theoretically end in a WP victory. Considering the way that most people seem to think, there seems to be an entitlement mentality about contesting this by-election. Many people seem to think of Punggol East as WP turf. I wouldn't be surprised (given the impossibility of collusion) voters planning to vote for the opposition would err on the side of caution and vote for the WP. In fact, the other opposition parties might not even garner more than 2% to 3% of the vote. Against this logic, the only reason why an opposition voter in Punggol East would vote for a non-WP candidate would be because the alternative candidate is a charismatic individual holding the promise of being a genuine vocal element in Parliament (e.g. Vincent Wijeysingha).
It is quite probable that between WP's strong branding and SDP's potentially charismatic candidate, the votes could be split in such a way that the PAP still wins the seat with about 45% of the votes.
My preference
Personally, I'd like to see another seat fall into the hands of the opposition. By-elections represent the golden opportunity to reduce PAP's almost total dominance of Parliament. My knee-jerk reaction to the possibility of a by-election in Punggol was to feel that the opposition should cooperate to ensure a straight fight instead of a multi-cornered fight. Like many, I too felt instinctively that the other opposition parties should yield to the WP as they contested Punggol East in the GE.
But, the more I think about it, the more i realise that there is no inherent logic behind the argument that somehow that constituency has become WP's turf. Ideally, the opposition parties should come to an agreement as to the fielding of a single opposition candidate. This candidate should be one that is intelligent, articulate and passionate. This candidate should be one that is vocal enough to ask the tough questions.
If the ideal situation cannot be accomplished, then there is no real loss in a multi-cornered fight. Perhaps, this is the best opportunity that we have for a free contest of ideas to be staged for voters and for opposition parties to test the level of support that they have in such a multi-cornered fight. We are transitioning from a one-party state. WP has managed to build itself into the largest opposition party. SDP is arguably a close competitor even though it does not hold on to any Parliamentary seat. It is clear that SDP attracts a particular type of audience. WP is seen in some circles as PAP-lite. The other politcal parties may take offence at the fact that I have not even mentioned them. But, let's be realistic about the perception at the national level. It is SDP and WP that have a realistic chance of picking up the larger share of opposition votes.
In a multi-cornered fight that eventually delivers the seat to the PAP, there is nothing that would be lost. Many lessons could be learned about voter preferences. So, if there is going to be a multi-cornered fight in Punggol East, I'd say, "Bring it on!"
(I wouldn't be surprised if part of the PM's calculation in terms of the timing of the by-election would have involved the fact that very little time should be given to the opposition parties to work out a deal. By announcing the by-election within 3 weeks of the vacancy of the seat, he has caught the opposition flat-footed. If the by-election were to be called after the Budget, the opposition parties would have had enough time to do their posturing and walkabouts and eventually work out some kind of collaboration. With the 16th of Jan being Nomination Day, any likelihood of an opposition agreement to ensure a straight fight is remote.)
Showing posts with label workers' party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label workers' party. Show all posts
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Friday, May 25, 2012
This is Hougang
I am a Liverpool fan. There is a famous sign at Liverpool's stadium that reads: "This is Anfield". It is awe-inspiring for every football player that has worn that famous red jersey and for every fan around the world that has seen that sign. In the days when Liverpool dominated the league, piling up victory after victory, "This is Anfield" was an intimidating statement to be confronted with as opposing teams entered the couldron.
Our politicians are fond of footballing analogies. This is my footballing analogy:
THIS IS HOUGANG!
When it comes to election statistics, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. When it comes to voter behaviour, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. When it comes to standing up to intimidation, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. There is something strong, resilient and courageous about the people of Hougang. I know a few Hougang residents personally. The ones that I know have been voting for the Workers' Party repeatedly. Why did these friends vote for WP? Check and balance in Parliament! That is the answer. What is particularly sophisticated about this way of voting is that these friends did not consider their local municipal issues as the key determinant for voting during a Parliamentary election. They understand that essentially in our system of democracy, we are voting for representatives in Parliament so that if there is a sufficient majority, that party could form the government and if not, those representatives could act as an effective check and balance. These friends are fully aware that the PAP's parliamentary majority is not under any threat. These friends are also uncomfortable with the size of the PAP's Parliamentary majority where Constitutional amendments can be pushed through. For these friends of mine, a strong opposition presence in Parliament of between 20 to 30 members would serve as a way to push the PAP to implement more people friendly policies and to monitor the way that the government functions.
So, what do they think about upgrading and other bullying tactics? It doesn't figure in their voting. In fact, I suspect that it enrages them and entrenches the WP vote.
As I observed the campaign by the two sides during this by-election, I can't help but realise that the PAP has lost the plot when it comes to the 'new normal'. Here was a perfect opportunity to show everyone that they have emerged from GE 2011 wiser and are now willing to go down the road of clean politics. But, this has become an opportunity squandered with them attempting to make an issue out of Yaw Shin Leong's selection and then making an issue out of Png Eng Huat's non-selection for the NCMP position in the last GE. What we saw was the same old tactics. I doubt that the campaign approach is going to go down well with Hougang voters.
What do I think will be the outcome of this by-election? WP will win, of course. I am sure that if this was open for a bet, even the PAP leaders would bet on a WP win. What would be interesting is the % of the win. How wide a margin would the WP get? Would they lose some ground? Would they gain more?
Firstly, I always assume a core group of PAP supporters and opposition supporters exist in every constituency. These voters would not change their vote. Yaw-gate and NCMP-gate will not move the strong WP supporter in Hougang to vote for the PAP. PAP's bullying and dirty campaign tactics will not move the hardcore PAP suporter into feeling disgusted and voting for the WP.
So, it is the middle ground that we are looking at.
I also suspect that most of the middle ground had already voted for WP in GE 2011. The PAP's 35% in Hougang (during GE 2011) represents the hardcore PAP support that exists throughout the country. (I use the Dr Tony Tan voters during the PResidential election as a gauge of the 'PAP-whatever-the-situation' vote in Singapore.)
In GE 2011, WP was scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of middle ground voters. It will be an uphill task to convert more of them, unless new voters added onto the register this year turn overwhelmingly towards the WP. Even then, it would be a small number. Maybe, we might tweak the national average a little bit since this is Hougang. So, instead of a hardcore 35% PAP supporters, we might assume that there is a 30% hardcore support for PAP in Hougang. If that is the case, there may be some votes to be scraped away from the PAP by the WP.
The probability of an increase in WP's percentage is very low. On the other hand, there is a reasonably high probability of WP's vote share going down. Any shift downwards would be by 1% to 3%. Any shift upwards would be 1% at the most. Anyone seeking to get the impact of a referrendum out of this by-election would be severely disappointed. The way that the campaign has been reported in the media and the way the online media has focused attention on 'NCMP-gate', the more important national issues have not been given any prominence and I am pretty certain that this is not going to turn out to be a referendum on the policies of the PAP over the last year.
WP was attempting to make this into an election about national issues at its rallies. Personally, I felt at the outset that in a small country like ours, the national and the local gets merged together inextricably. But, the loudest news filtering through the media is about Png Eng Huat's selection (or non-selection for the NCMP post). (And inexplicably the loudest 'political' social media shared event today is the XiaXue fight back against some pretty nasty comments by Facebookers.) The middle ground voters in Hougang may be swayed against Png Eng Huat. But, this is bound to be marginal.
Whatever the outcome, Hougang will remain with the WP. Hougang residents will continue to shout out loud and proud:
THIS IS HOUGANG!
UPDATE:
In GE 2011, the voter turnout was 23,176 out of 24,560 eligible voters. 1,384 did not turn up for voting. WP had 14850 votes (64.8% of valid votes) and PAP had 8065 votes (35.2% of valid votes). 261 spoilt votes.
Based on a Channelnewsasia report today, there are 23,368 eligible voters. Those 1,384 that did not vote would have been removed from the electoral register. New voters added onto the register would therefore be: 23,368 - 23,176 = 192 (bearing in mind that a small segment of the 192 would be those that got themselves reinstated in the register)
If everyone voted without changing their votes and if WP picked up all 192 of the new votes, the result would be 15,042 for WP and 8065 for PAP. That would be 65.1% for WP and 34.9% for PAP.
Similarly, if PAP picks up all the 192 votes, the result would be 14,850 for WP and 8,257 for PAP. That would be 64.2% for WP and 35.8% for PAP.
Our politicians are fond of footballing analogies. This is my footballing analogy:
THIS IS HOUGANG!
When it comes to election statistics, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. When it comes to voter behaviour, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. When it comes to standing up to intimidation, the national norm does not apply to Hougang. There is something strong, resilient and courageous about the people of Hougang. I know a few Hougang residents personally. The ones that I know have been voting for the Workers' Party repeatedly. Why did these friends vote for WP? Check and balance in Parliament! That is the answer. What is particularly sophisticated about this way of voting is that these friends did not consider their local municipal issues as the key determinant for voting during a Parliamentary election. They understand that essentially in our system of democracy, we are voting for representatives in Parliament so that if there is a sufficient majority, that party could form the government and if not, those representatives could act as an effective check and balance. These friends are fully aware that the PAP's parliamentary majority is not under any threat. These friends are also uncomfortable with the size of the PAP's Parliamentary majority where Constitutional amendments can be pushed through. For these friends of mine, a strong opposition presence in Parliament of between 20 to 30 members would serve as a way to push the PAP to implement more people friendly policies and to monitor the way that the government functions.
So, what do they think about upgrading and other bullying tactics? It doesn't figure in their voting. In fact, I suspect that it enrages them and entrenches the WP vote.
As I observed the campaign by the two sides during this by-election, I can't help but realise that the PAP has lost the plot when it comes to the 'new normal'. Here was a perfect opportunity to show everyone that they have emerged from GE 2011 wiser and are now willing to go down the road of clean politics. But, this has become an opportunity squandered with them attempting to make an issue out of Yaw Shin Leong's selection and then making an issue out of Png Eng Huat's non-selection for the NCMP position in the last GE. What we saw was the same old tactics. I doubt that the campaign approach is going to go down well with Hougang voters.
What do I think will be the outcome of this by-election? WP will win, of course. I am sure that if this was open for a bet, even the PAP leaders would bet on a WP win. What would be interesting is the % of the win. How wide a margin would the WP get? Would they lose some ground? Would they gain more?
Firstly, I always assume a core group of PAP supporters and opposition supporters exist in every constituency. These voters would not change their vote. Yaw-gate and NCMP-gate will not move the strong WP supporter in Hougang to vote for the PAP. PAP's bullying and dirty campaign tactics will not move the hardcore PAP suporter into feeling disgusted and voting for the WP.
So, it is the middle ground that we are looking at.
I also suspect that most of the middle ground had already voted for WP in GE 2011. The PAP's 35% in Hougang (during GE 2011) represents the hardcore PAP support that exists throughout the country. (I use the Dr Tony Tan voters during the PResidential election as a gauge of the 'PAP-whatever-the-situation' vote in Singapore.)
In GE 2011, WP was scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of middle ground voters. It will be an uphill task to convert more of them, unless new voters added onto the register this year turn overwhelmingly towards the WP. Even then, it would be a small number. Maybe, we might tweak the national average a little bit since this is Hougang. So, instead of a hardcore 35% PAP supporters, we might assume that there is a 30% hardcore support for PAP in Hougang. If that is the case, there may be some votes to be scraped away from the PAP by the WP.
The probability of an increase in WP's percentage is very low. On the other hand, there is a reasonably high probability of WP's vote share going down. Any shift downwards would be by 1% to 3%. Any shift upwards would be 1% at the most. Anyone seeking to get the impact of a referrendum out of this by-election would be severely disappointed. The way that the campaign has been reported in the media and the way the online media has focused attention on 'NCMP-gate', the more important national issues have not been given any prominence and I am pretty certain that this is not going to turn out to be a referendum on the policies of the PAP over the last year.
WP was attempting to make this into an election about national issues at its rallies. Personally, I felt at the outset that in a small country like ours, the national and the local gets merged together inextricably. But, the loudest news filtering through the media is about Png Eng Huat's selection (or non-selection for the NCMP post). (And inexplicably the loudest 'political' social media shared event today is the XiaXue fight back against some pretty nasty comments by Facebookers.) The middle ground voters in Hougang may be swayed against Png Eng Huat. But, this is bound to be marginal.
Whatever the outcome, Hougang will remain with the WP. Hougang residents will continue to shout out loud and proud:
THIS IS HOUGANG!
UPDATE:
In GE 2011, the voter turnout was 23,176 out of 24,560 eligible voters. 1,384 did not turn up for voting. WP had 14850 votes (64.8% of valid votes) and PAP had 8065 votes (35.2% of valid votes). 261 spoilt votes.
Based on a Channelnewsasia report today, there are 23,368 eligible voters. Those 1,384 that did not vote would have been removed from the electoral register. New voters added onto the register would therefore be: 23,368 - 23,176 = 192 (bearing in mind that a small segment of the 192 would be those that got themselves reinstated in the register)
If everyone voted without changing their votes and if WP picked up all 192 of the new votes, the result would be 15,042 for WP and 8065 for PAP. That would be 65.1% for WP and 34.9% for PAP.
Similarly, if PAP picks up all the 192 votes, the result would be 14,850 for WP and 8,257 for PAP. That would be 64.2% for WP and 35.8% for PAP.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Why is the PAP anxious to keep national issues out of the Hougang by-election?
For starters, let us not kid ourselves. WP is going to win in Hougang. This is an opposition stronghold and I am sure the PAP leadership and their candidate for Hougang, Desmond Choo, are under no illusions as to the outcome on 26th May 2012. The Hougang constituency has gone to the Workers' Party since 1991 and the election statistics are as follows:
1991 - 52.8% for WP
1997 - 58% for WP
2001 - 55% for WP
2006 - 62.7% for WP
2011 - 64.8% for WP
The demographic change between the last General Elections and this by-election is going to be miniscule and unlikely to have any impact on the voting pattern. There is no reason to believe that voters that went for WP last year would change their minds. There is not much that has changed in the national socio-political arena to suggest that significant change could take place in the voting pattern. There is no doubt that the PAP will put up a fight. But, they would be fully prepared for defeat on 26th May.
So, why are they keen to make this out to be an election about 'local' issues and not 'national'. (Incidentally, I don't buy into that 'local' v 'national' dichotomy. This is a false dichotomy in a country like ours where the 'national' morphs into, overlaps with and is indistinguishable from the 'local' in many instances.) I suspect that the PAP is worried about the prospect of a further swing towards the WP. Even a marginal 2 to 3% increase for WP can be interpreted as growing voter disapproval of the PAP government's performance in the last year. Though it is not fair to consider the Hougang outcome (whichever way the swing of votes goes) as a referrendum on PAP's policies, it is inevitable that WP MPs will attempt to paint the by-election as a referrendum in order to push the PAP on certain policies. For instance, transportation could be made into a major issue during this by-election and if there is a vote increase in WP's favour, WP would use that a leverage in its Parliamentary arguments on that issue.
I am pretty sure that the PAP does not want to be pushed into decision making on policy matters on the basis of the outcome in a by-election. It is therefore anxious to paint this election as one that concerns itself with constituency representation and about effectively taking care of Hougang residents. A by-election as a referrendum is clearly not in the PAP's best interest.
Saturday, February 18, 2012
The Politics of Affairs
When the issue of Yaw Shin Leong's affair first surfaced, I treated it the same way that I treat all gossipy tales of sordid affairs of the rich, famous or powerful. Stories like that deserve to be consigned to the thrash can. I don't really care if a celebrity has an affair. Nor do I care if a politician has an affair.
These indiscretions and their consequences have to be dealt with by the parties involved.In the case of a politician, my only concern is about the way in which he discharges his duties and functions. I want my MP to be an effective voice in Parliament. I want him to question the policy position of the executive. I want him to scrutinise legislation effectively. I want him to be mindful of the needs of the constituents and to represent these needs to the relevant persons and bodies so as to achieve the desired outcome.
I don't want my MP to be a passive observer in Parliament. I don't want him to be a 'Yes' man with nothing to contribute by way of policy scrutiny. I don't want him to rubber stamp every legislation that comes before Parliament.
If in the course of his position as an MP or Minister, a politician has an affair or he has had an affair in the past before coming into politics, none of this is of concern to me. I apply this principle equally to PAP MPs and Ministers as I would to opposition MPs. I remember hearing rumours about a certain PAP MP having an affair a long time ago. It was a rumour that had heavy circulation within the legal profession. I wanted no part of it as it was of no concern to me. There was understandably no news of the rumour in the media. But, the 135th press, living up to its low rating, sprung into action the minute there were rumours circulating about Yaw Shin Leong's affair.
As far as I am concerned, I would treat both issues in the same way. They are rumours and I don't really care about rumours. If there was truth in the allegations, again I don't care about the fact that a politician had an affair so long as he is able to discharge his functions. On that basis, there is no need for Yaw Shin Leong to resign or to be sacked by the party.
As we subscribe to the Westminister model of government, it might be useful to have reference to the constitutional conventions in UK with regard to personal misconduct. There is no specific convention relating to sexual misconduct by an individual MP. However, there is a convention pertaining to Ministerial Responsibility and there have been occasions involving ministerial resignation resulting from extra-marital affairs. Constitutional scholars in the UK are mostly of the view that a Minister's personal conduct involving sexual indiscretion does not trigger the convention of ministerial responsibility. The John Profumo scandal that led to the resignation of the minister involved an affair by the minister. However, the actual reason for which he resigned (and rightly so) was that he misled Parliament. It wasn't the affair. It was the lie.
However, there have been other ministers that have resigned as a result of being exposed as having an affair. These have been a result of public and Parliamenaty pressure rather than because of any Constitutional Convention. Quite apart from my own views that I do not expect my politicians to be saints, there is also no constitutional basis for insisting that a politician is answerable to the people for an affair that he had.
He has a lot of explaining to do to his wife and kids, of course. (And yes, kids. That is one good reason why I hate gossips about affairs. The more prevalent and public the gossip campaign, the more likely that the kids will come to know of it. It is not justifiable to expose young children to such 'news' of their parent. This is a matter that should be resolved within the family and if unresolvable, then I would expect the parties would end up in a divorce.)
Is the Worker's Party's move to expel YSL proper?
My initial view of the proper step to be taken by a political party is that an extra-marital affair should not be the basis on which the party member is expelled. I believe that the WP leaders must have initially taken that stance and concluded that it was not necessary for them to take any steps in relation to their MP? However, the very public witchhunt has pushed the hands of the Party to at first remove Yaw SL from his position in the Executive Committee and then to expell him.
The public explanation is that he has failed to give any adequate explanantion in relation to the alleged affair. This is one instance where the right to remain silent works completely against you. “No comment” is not the comment to make. The expectation that the party leaders would have had is that, at the very least, Yaw SL would give them an explanation. If it was indeed the case that Yaw SL did not explain himself to the WP, then the WP was entitled to take disciplinary action against him.
But, I wonder. Perhaps, it was a case of the WP leaders calculating that the fallout from the scandal could be too damaging for the party. Standing by a party member that had in fact committed adultery might sully the party's name. If more damning information were to emerge in public and it were to be clearly shown that YSL had an affair, then the political fallout for the WP could be too great. It is quite likely that sacking YSL was a form of damage control. It was probably an attempt to appear 'whiter than white.'
From a purely tactical standpoint, the WP move to sack YSL was probably the wisest thing that could have been done under the circumstances.
Did the Workers' Party let down its voters?
What can we say about the PAP? I didn't expect the rather opportunistic comments made by Mr Khaw Boon Wan. I kind of like the man. In a way, I didn't expect him to enter the fray. He claims that the WP may have misled the voters. PM Lee has gone further to say that WP has let the people down. How could that be? If a political party decided to climb the high moral ground, and demanded high standards from its MPs, it is something to be welcome.
The party has moved swiftly to assure Hougang residents. It has wasted no time in urging the PM to call for elections. It is imperative that a by-election be held so that the constitutents can have an MP representing them in Parliament. I remember the PAP conveniently avoided having by-elections in the past by an interpretation of the Constitution and the Parliamentary Elections Act in such a way that by-elections were unnecessary in a GRC when one seat became vacant. Creative? yes. Responsible? no.
I have no issues with the fact that having made the decision to demand an explanation from their MP, WP leaders being unsatisfied with his non-response had eventually taken the step to expel him. The most responsible thing to then do is to call for elections asap.
Having said all of that, I still stand by my original position that an extra marital affair is a non-issue. I am concerned about whether my MP can do his job. I am not concerned about whether he got himself a blow job.
A Humourous footnote
A rather funny by-product of the Yaw saga is the letter of demand from Mr Shanmugam's lawyers to the author of the Yawning Bread blog. They effectively demanded that a certain comment made by a 3rd party be deleted from the blog. They went on to demand that their letter be published in full. Alex Au (the blogger behind Yawning Bread) complied with both requests. The net effect of that is that the scandalous comments thrown in by some 'scroobal' has become the subject of further rumour mongering.Sometimes, the wisest thing to do is just walk away.
These indiscretions and their consequences have to be dealt with by the parties involved.In the case of a politician, my only concern is about the way in which he discharges his duties and functions. I want my MP to be an effective voice in Parliament. I want him to question the policy position of the executive. I want him to scrutinise legislation effectively. I want him to be mindful of the needs of the constituents and to represent these needs to the relevant persons and bodies so as to achieve the desired outcome.
I don't want my MP to be a passive observer in Parliament. I don't want him to be a 'Yes' man with nothing to contribute by way of policy scrutiny. I don't want him to rubber stamp every legislation that comes before Parliament.
If in the course of his position as an MP or Minister, a politician has an affair or he has had an affair in the past before coming into politics, none of this is of concern to me. I apply this principle equally to PAP MPs and Ministers as I would to opposition MPs. I remember hearing rumours about a certain PAP MP having an affair a long time ago. It was a rumour that had heavy circulation within the legal profession. I wanted no part of it as it was of no concern to me. There was understandably no news of the rumour in the media. But, the 135th press, living up to its low rating, sprung into action the minute there were rumours circulating about Yaw Shin Leong's affair.
As far as I am concerned, I would treat both issues in the same way. They are rumours and I don't really care about rumours. If there was truth in the allegations, again I don't care about the fact that a politician had an affair so long as he is able to discharge his functions. On that basis, there is no need for Yaw Shin Leong to resign or to be sacked by the party.
As we subscribe to the Westminister model of government, it might be useful to have reference to the constitutional conventions in UK with regard to personal misconduct. There is no specific convention relating to sexual misconduct by an individual MP. However, there is a convention pertaining to Ministerial Responsibility and there have been occasions involving ministerial resignation resulting from extra-marital affairs. Constitutional scholars in the UK are mostly of the view that a Minister's personal conduct involving sexual indiscretion does not trigger the convention of ministerial responsibility. The John Profumo scandal that led to the resignation of the minister involved an affair by the minister. However, the actual reason for which he resigned (and rightly so) was that he misled Parliament. It wasn't the affair. It was the lie.
However, there have been other ministers that have resigned as a result of being exposed as having an affair. These have been a result of public and Parliamenaty pressure rather than because of any Constitutional Convention. Quite apart from my own views that I do not expect my politicians to be saints, there is also no constitutional basis for insisting that a politician is answerable to the people for an affair that he had.
He has a lot of explaining to do to his wife and kids, of course. (And yes, kids. That is one good reason why I hate gossips about affairs. The more prevalent and public the gossip campaign, the more likely that the kids will come to know of it. It is not justifiable to expose young children to such 'news' of their parent. This is a matter that should be resolved within the family and if unresolvable, then I would expect the parties would end up in a divorce.)
Is the Worker's Party's move to expel YSL proper?
My initial view of the proper step to be taken by a political party is that an extra-marital affair should not be the basis on which the party member is expelled. I believe that the WP leaders must have initially taken that stance and concluded that it was not necessary for them to take any steps in relation to their MP? However, the very public witchhunt has pushed the hands of the Party to at first remove Yaw SL from his position in the Executive Committee and then to expell him.
The public explanation is that he has failed to give any adequate explanantion in relation to the alleged affair. This is one instance where the right to remain silent works completely against you. “No comment” is not the comment to make. The expectation that the party leaders would have had is that, at the very least, Yaw SL would give them an explanation. If it was indeed the case that Yaw SL did not explain himself to the WP, then the WP was entitled to take disciplinary action against him.
But, I wonder. Perhaps, it was a case of the WP leaders calculating that the fallout from the scandal could be too damaging for the party. Standing by a party member that had in fact committed adultery might sully the party's name. If more damning information were to emerge in public and it were to be clearly shown that YSL had an affair, then the political fallout for the WP could be too great. It is quite likely that sacking YSL was a form of damage control. It was probably an attempt to appear 'whiter than white.'
From a purely tactical standpoint, the WP move to sack YSL was probably the wisest thing that could have been done under the circumstances.
Did the Workers' Party let down its voters?
What can we say about the PAP? I didn't expect the rather opportunistic comments made by Mr Khaw Boon Wan. I kind of like the man. In a way, I didn't expect him to enter the fray. He claims that the WP may have misled the voters. PM Lee has gone further to say that WP has let the people down. How could that be? If a political party decided to climb the high moral ground, and demanded high standards from its MPs, it is something to be welcome.
The party has moved swiftly to assure Hougang residents. It has wasted no time in urging the PM to call for elections. It is imperative that a by-election be held so that the constitutents can have an MP representing them in Parliament. I remember the PAP conveniently avoided having by-elections in the past by an interpretation of the Constitution and the Parliamentary Elections Act in such a way that by-elections were unnecessary in a GRC when one seat became vacant. Creative? yes. Responsible? no.
I have no issues with the fact that having made the decision to demand an explanation from their MP, WP leaders being unsatisfied with his non-response had eventually taken the step to expel him. The most responsible thing to then do is to call for elections asap.
Having said all of that, I still stand by my original position that an extra marital affair is a non-issue. I am concerned about whether my MP can do his job. I am not concerned about whether he got himself a blow job.
A Humourous footnote
A rather funny by-product of the Yaw saga is the letter of demand from Mr Shanmugam's lawyers to the author of the Yawning Bread blog. They effectively demanded that a certain comment made by a 3rd party be deleted from the blog. They went on to demand that their letter be published in full. Alex Au (the blogger behind Yawning Bread) complied with both requests. The net effect of that is that the scandalous comments thrown in by some 'scroobal' has become the subject of further rumour mongering.Sometimes, the wisest thing to do is just walk away.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
PA or PAP?
You can accuse us of political apathy. But, you can never accuse Singaporeans of stupidity.
I am amazed at the Peoples' Association's response to the Workers' Party assertions about WP MPs being deprived of an opportunity to be invited guests at the 7 month festivites. It has turned out that Chen Show Mao had been invited as a guest at a couple of 'Hungry Ghost' festival dinners. But, the organisers had to withdraw the invitation because the Peoples' Association informed that they would not grant future permission if the WP MP was invited.
This first surfaced via a facebook update by Mr Chen Show Mao and subsequently a press release by Ms Sylvia Lim indicating that HDB had granted leases at several places in the Alunied GRC to the Peoples' Association and taken away management of those parts of the estate from the Town Council. This had been done after the General Elections this year. This is in iself shocking as it suggests partisan politics at play in our public institutions. There is an important value that any self-respecting democracy must uphold: the independance and neutrality of the civil service.
But, I am totally stunned at the audacity of the PA's response.
"The PA and its GROs are non-partisan and do not allow any political party or MP to hold activities on PA premises or other facilities managed by the PA."
"This applies to all political parties and MPs, including the PAP"
There are so many things I can quibble about:
1. The Workers Party did not attempt to hold any activities on PA premises
2. The WP MPs did not attempt to hold any activities on the PA premises
3. Mr Chen was invited by civilian, non-partisan organisers to attend the function
4. Community Clubs are PA premises and PAP MPs have been invited as guests at functions held at CCs.
A simple google search reveals a wealth of information on PAP MPs attending activities or officiating as guests at events taking place on PA premises or facilities managed by the PA.
A sampling:
Eunos Heights Residents’ Committee organised a Chinese New Year Dinner on 20 February 2011 at Eunos Community Club Multipurpose Hall. MP for Aljunied GRC Mr Zainul Abidin was the guest of honour. http://eunoszone3.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/celebrating-the-year-of-the-rabbit/
Passion Nite: on 31st December 2009 at Cheng San CC
Guest of Honour: Dr Balaji Sadasivan, MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC http://www.pa.gov.sg/events/details/passion-nite-159.html
There are too many examples and they are easily available. When the PA decided to assert that they 'do not allow any political party or MP to hold activities on PA premises or other facilities managed by the PA', did they honestly believe that they can get away with that assertion?
I can imagine their response. Those events at PA premises where MPs were present involved MPs that were invited to attend and they were not activities organised by the PAP or the PAP MPs. Well, by the same token the hungry ghost event was not organised by the WP or its MPs. Mr Chen was invited to attend.
Please don't insult our intelligence.
And, by the way who is on the Board of Management in the Peoples' Association?
Lee Hsien Loong, Lim Swee Say, MG Chan Chun Sin, Grace Fu, Masagos Zulkifli, Janil Puthucheary, amongst others. (Interestingly, Mr Yam Ah Mee of GE2011 fame is also there)
Non-Partisan? My ***.
I am amazed at the Peoples' Association's response to the Workers' Party assertions about WP MPs being deprived of an opportunity to be invited guests at the 7 month festivites. It has turned out that Chen Show Mao had been invited as a guest at a couple of 'Hungry Ghost' festival dinners. But, the organisers had to withdraw the invitation because the Peoples' Association informed that they would not grant future permission if the WP MP was invited.
This first surfaced via a facebook update by Mr Chen Show Mao and subsequently a press release by Ms Sylvia Lim indicating that HDB had granted leases at several places in the Alunied GRC to the Peoples' Association and taken away management of those parts of the estate from the Town Council. This had been done after the General Elections this year. This is in iself shocking as it suggests partisan politics at play in our public institutions. There is an important value that any self-respecting democracy must uphold: the independance and neutrality of the civil service.
But, I am totally stunned at the audacity of the PA's response.
"The PA and its GROs are non-partisan and do not allow any political party or MP to hold activities on PA premises or other facilities managed by the PA."
"This applies to all political parties and MPs, including the PAP"
There are so many things I can quibble about:
1. The Workers Party did not attempt to hold any activities on PA premises
2. The WP MPs did not attempt to hold any activities on the PA premises
3. Mr Chen was invited by civilian, non-partisan organisers to attend the function
4. Community Clubs are PA premises and PAP MPs have been invited as guests at functions held at CCs.
A simple google search reveals a wealth of information on PAP MPs attending activities or officiating as guests at events taking place on PA premises or facilities managed by the PA.
A sampling:
Eunos Heights Residents’ Committee organised a Chinese New Year Dinner on 20 February 2011 at Eunos Community Club Multipurpose Hall. MP for Aljunied GRC Mr Zainul Abidin was the guest of honour. http://eunoszone3.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/celebrating-the-year-of-the-rabbit/
Passion Nite: on 31st December 2009 at Cheng San CC
Guest of Honour: Dr Balaji Sadasivan, MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC http://www.pa.gov.sg/events/details/passion-nite-159.html
There are too many examples and they are easily available. When the PA decided to assert that they 'do not allow any political party or MP to hold activities on PA premises or other facilities managed by the PA', did they honestly believe that they can get away with that assertion?
I can imagine their response. Those events at PA premises where MPs were present involved MPs that were invited to attend and they were not activities organised by the PAP or the PAP MPs. Well, by the same token the hungry ghost event was not organised by the WP or its MPs. Mr Chen was invited to attend.
Please don't insult our intelligence.
And, by the way who is on the Board of Management in the Peoples' Association?
Lee Hsien Loong, Lim Swee Say, MG Chan Chun Sin, Grace Fu, Masagos Zulkifli, Janil Puthucheary, amongst others. (Interestingly, Mr Yam Ah Mee of GE2011 fame is also there)
Non-Partisan? My ***.
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